There is a case to be made that the UAE have been the most impressive team at the 2014 Gulf Cup in Riyadh, despite the numbers not supporting such a claim.
Mahdi Ali’s men played decently enough in their opener without breaking down the Omani defence. Then their performance in Monday’s 2-2 draw with Kuwait, especially in the first half, was by some distance the best showing by any team in the competition.
Yet, somehow, as they face Iraq in their final Group B match on Thursday the champions find themselves on only two points, with a possibility of elimination should they lose or draw.
The Kickabout podcast: Paul Oberjuerge and Paul Freelend analyse UAE’s chances.
On paper, at least, it looks a dicey situation, but Mahdi Ali will not be panicking.
Not only were the UAE – with Omar Abdulrahman in imperious form – dominant against Kuwait, Iraq’s showing against Oman on the same day was hardly one to strike fear into the Emirati camp.
After playing well in the last-ditch loss to Kuwait in their opener, Iraq failed to build on their early lead against Oman and, in the end, were thankful for a point as they faded badly in the second half.
Their troubles are mounting. Swindon Town’s Yaser Kasim and the 2013 Asian young player of the year, Ali Adnan of Turkey’s Caykur Rizespor, have been recalled by their clubs as the enforced Fifa international break has expired.
Both Iraqis will miss the match against the UAE.
Mahdi Ali will be pleased with the gradual improvement in his team in Riyadh. Above all, he will be delighted by the return to form of Abdulrahman and Ali Mabkhout, who scored two exceptional goals against Kuwait.
The UAE beat Iraq in their previous encounter, last year’s final, when Iraq took the UAE to extra time where they could have snatched victory before Ismail Al Hammadi’s late winner won the cup for the Emiratis.
The permutations are also on the UAE’s side. Only a win can save Iraq from elimination, while the UAE can afford a draw, depending on the outcome of the other group match between leaders Kuwait and Oman.
It is unlikely Mahdi Ali will be taking that risk and, with his forward line finally clicking, he will go for the win.
It is up to Abdulrahman, Mabkhout and the rest of teammates to finish the job.
UAE v Iraq in numbers
5 – The number of unanswered goals Iraq scored in their record win over the UAE at the 1979 Gulf Cup held in Baghdad.
1984 – The year that the UAE finally took a point off Iraq. In Muscat, Oman, the Emiratis finished 0-0 against the team that would go on to win their second Gulf Cup title.
2 – The number of matches between the two teams that have been annulled for Iraq pulling out of the competition before its conclusion: Iraq's 2-0 win in 1982 and the 2-2 draw in 1990.
107 – The minute in which Ismail Al Hammadi scored his extra-time winner as the UAE beat Iraq 2-1 to win the 2013 Gulf Cup in Bahrain.
5 – The number of times the UAE and Iraq have played out a Gulf Cup draw, the most common result between the two. Iraq have won twice, while the UAE's only win came in the 2013 final.
akhaled@thenational.ae
Follow our sports coverage on Twitter @SprtNationalUAE
