Ahead of the 2016 Australian Open in Melbourne, The National’s Ahmed Rizvi, Jon Turner, and Graham Caygill make a range of predictions for the first grand slam of the season.
JON TURNER — Online Sports Editor
Men’s champion — Novak Djokovic
This is far from bold, but such is the gulf between Djokovic and the rest of the field, it is almost unfathomable that the world No 1 will not win his sixth Australian Open title. Any possibility that the gap had been closed since the end of last season was ruthlessly dismissed in the Qatar Open final on Saturday. Rafael Nadal entered the match in fine form and bristling confidence, but after 70 minutes of devastating tennis, Djokovic reminded everyone who the king is. You know, just in case you’d forgotten. Don’t be surprised if he marches to the title without dropping a set. He’s that much better than everyone else.
If Djokovic doesn’t win then who? Andy Murray
Again, not exactly a left-field choice, but having reached four finals in the past six seasons, world No 2 Murray has done almost everything right in his pursuit of the Australian Open crown. Despite his ranking, Murray remains susceptible in the grand slams when up against Djokovic or Roger Federer, but should the Serbian suffer a shock defeat in Melbourne, Murray is the best equipped to take advantage and win his third major title.
Surprise semi-finalist — Grigor Dimitrov
Much of this selection will, as always, depend on the draw, but there is no other player outside of the big four or five with the talent and weapons to make it deep into a major than Dimitrov. Last season was meant to represent the Bulgarian’s chance to take the next step up in his career, but it ultimately proved a disappointment. However, as anyone that watched his high-quality Brisbane International quarter-final against Federer can attest, Dimitrov is looking in fine form. Perhaps this is the year the world No 28 really pushes on.
Flop of the tournament — Tomas Berdych
For a player with such huge groundstrokes and a monster serve, it beggars belief that Berdych has only made a solitary grand slam final, at Wimbledon in 2010. Every time a major rolls round, Berdych is at the head of the queue of players tipped to rock the establishment, but the Czech world No 6 always falls short when up against one of the game’s heavyweights. Berdych’s lack of lateral movement and court speed can also see him come unstuck against a solid top 20 or 30 baseliner, and this will be his biggest danger this year. Anything less than a quarter-final will be a failure for someone of Berdych’s ability, and I can envisage a third or fourth round exit.
Women’s champion — Victoria Azarenka
Not Serena Williams? Are you mad? Perhaps this is a screw-loose prediction, but Williams, who enters the tournament seriously undercooked, aside, the women’s game is so open at the moment that there are 10 players you could put in the frame to win the Australian Open. Don’t be fooled by Azarenka’s lowly ranking of 22 as she battles her way back to the upper echelons of the WTA after two years affected by injury. Azarenka is an elite player and barring any further injury setback will reclaim her place among the top five in the world this season. She won her first title since 2013 last week at the Brisbane International, and in brutal fashion too, thrashing world No 10 Angelique Kerber 6-3, 6-1 in the final. The Belarusian, a two-time champion in Melbourne, has that winning feeling back, and is a ruthless competitor on court.
Surprise semi-finalist — Sloane Stephens
For so long tipped as a future grand slam winner and Serena Williams’ heir as the queen of American tennis, Stephens suffered a major dip in form and saw her ranking drop from No 12 in 2013 to 37 by the end of last season. However, the 22-year-old has started this year in style, winning the Auckland Open last week, beating world No 17 Caroline Wozniacki in the semi-final and Julia Georges in the final. In possession of great power in both her serve and groundstrokes, consistency has always been the issue for Stephens. But if she can get her shots under control, she will be a danger for anyone in Melbourne.
Flop of the tournament — Agnieszka Radwanska
The world No 5 and reigning WTA Tour Finals champion has been a constant disappointment at the grand slams, barring a Wimbledon final in 2012. A solitary trip to the semi-final at the 2014 Australian Open is her best showing in Melbourne, and I don’t see that changing this year. The embodiment of consistency, Radwanska makes few errors and is as fast as lighting around the court. But as soon as she faces a big-hitter who can blast her of the court, she will tumble out. Another early exit for the Polish player.
AHMED RIZVI — Reporter
Men’s champion — Novak Djokovic
A finalist at six of the last seven grand slams and champion at four of them. The Australian Open champion in four of the last five years. Who can, then, dare to pick any other man for the crown? Not even the most ardent hater would do that, not after the way he annihilated Rafael Nadal in the Doha final. The title, as they say, is Djokovic’s to lose.
If not Djokovic then who? Andy Murray
The world No 2 looks a good second choice and, with some luck of the draw, could return home with his third grand slam trophy. Last year, Djokovic denied him in the final, running away with the match after two close opening sets. The Scot has lost three other finals Down Under — once to Roger Federer (2010) and twice against the Serb (2011 and 2013). He also lost in the 2012 semi-final to Djokovic, which means the Serb has been responsible for four of his last five losses in Melbourne. So if, somehow, Murray manages to avoid Djokovic, the trophy could finally be his.
Surprise semi finalist — Bernard Tomic
The highest ranked Australian at No 18, Tomic beat Kei Nishikori on his way to the Brisbane semi-finals before losing in two tie-breaks to Milos Raonic. If he can keep that momentum going, and remain focused, Tomic could suddenly become the darling of the home fans and finally fulfil the potential we have been talking about for years.
Flop of the tournament — Roger Federer
His fans might feel a bit offended, especially given his impressive record in Melbourne — semi-final or better in all but one of his last 12 visits to the Australian Open. However, with the Olympics and Wimbledon probably his top targets in 2016, he will be aiming to peak around that time. The Australian Open, then, might not see the best of an ageing Federer this time.
Women’s champion- Victoria Azarenka
A two-time Australian Open champion, the Belarusian has been to the peaks of women’s tennis in the past, but a foot injury has held her back in the last two seasons. Those problems, however, seem to be thing of the past. Azarenka looked in ominous form on her way to the Brisbane title and, given the fitness doubts surrounding the top six, she could go all the way in Melbourne as well.
Surprise semi-finalist — Belinda Bencic
To be honest, it would not really be a surprise if the Swiss teenager makes it to the last four in Melbourne. She reached the quarter-final of the US Open on debut, in 2014, and made it to the fourth round at Wimbledon last year, and she already has a Premier 5 title on her CV — the Canadian Open, where she beat six grand slam finalists en route. A semi-final in Melbourne, then, should be a natural progression.
Flop of the tournament — Simona Halep
The Romanian, ranked No 2 in the world, has been troubled by her left Achilles for some time. She was forced out of the China Open last October with the same problem and came back to lose two of her three matches at the Year-End Championships. She pulled out of Brisbane last week citing the same issue and given the very physical nature of her game, it is difficult to see her going far at the Australian Open with a suspect Achilles.
GRAHAM CAYGILL — Deputy Sports Editor
Men’s champion — Novak Djokovic
Sorry to be boring, but it is almost impossible to see anyone else other than the world No 1 standing tall as champion. He has not lost a match since August, did not drop a set in Doha on his way to the title, and this is his best grand slam for good measure, with five of his 10 majors coming in Melbourne. His dismantling of Rafael Nadal in the Doha final was almost frightening in how he made one of the greatest players to ever play the game look ordinary, and given just how far ahead of everyone else he is right now, he has a great chance to win all four grand slams this year, starting here.
If not Djokovic then who? Stan Wawrinka
The only man to have beaten Djokovic in Melbourne since 2010, the Swiss player, when he is on form, is the only player who probably brings out a little fear in the world No 1. His searing groundstrokes and that devastating backhand can be unplayable, and if Wawrinka can find his range, as he did when he won the tournament in 2014, then he can repeat the feat and become a double champion.
Surprise semi-finalist — Nick Kyrgios
It is hard to get beyond all the drama and scandal with the Australian, but if you can then you will see the 20 year old is a real talent. The big issue with him is whether he can keep his head together for two weeks of tournament play. If he can, with a good serve and the ability to hit winners from across the court, he can go far in the event. Yes, the Hopman Cup is just a warm-up event for the Australian Open, but beating Andy Murray last week demonstrated he can hang with the big boys. He could easily lose his focus, have a row with umpire and go out in the first round. But, if he can hold it together, and with a kind draw (not getting Djokovic in the third or fourth rounds) he can go far.
Flop of the tournament — Andy Murray
The signs are not good for Murray. He played late into 2015 as he won the Davis Cup for Britain, and he has little competitive court time this year. The Briton usually goes well here, he has been a losing finalist four times in the past six years, but I think it is quarter-finals at best this time for the world No 2, which has to be seen as a disappointment, given his high ranking and his past record in Melbourne.
Women’s champion — Garbine Muguruza
The Spaniard was one of the revelations of 2015 as she charged up the rankings, and reached the Wimbledon final. She has the game to be a force in the women’s game, and would have had won Wimbledon with a little more experience. Her impressive form at the WTA Finals showed she is continuing to evolve and she has a good chance, not just because of Serena Williams’s injury concerns, of walking away from Melbourne as a major winner for the first time.
Surprise semi-finalist — Belinda Bencic
The Swiss player improved throughout 2015, and her run to the fourth round at Wimbledon, following up a quarter-final appearance at the 2014 US Open showed she can go far when playing well. The 18 year old, who is the world No 14, has a good chance here to reach the last four of a major for the first time.
Flop of the tournament — Serena Williams
Injuries and a lack of game time are the big concerns hanging over the world No 1 as she bids to win the Melbourne title for a seventh time. Yes, she won three grand slams last year, and missed out at the semi-final stage at the fourth, the US Open, but she is past her peak at the age of 34. A Williams no longer at the top of her game was still far too good for the rest last year, but she was still fallible and had major scares on her way to winning both the French Open and Wimbledon, often relying on her opponents lacking belief to take her down. Williams still, rightfully, starts as favourite, but I do not see her getting past the quarter-finals at best, which has to be seen as a flop given her recent dominance.
