Steven Smith’s stroke play; Mitchell Starc’s improvement: How Australia win the Ashes

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Charlie Crowhurst / Getty Images

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Ahead of Wednesday's start in Cardiff to the 2015 Ashes series, Graham Caygill provides five reasons why Australia can win and retain the urn.

Steven Smith

The best batsman in the world right now, Smith has been in sensational form, averaging 56 with the bat, and 102.1 in the past 12 months with five hundreds.

If he continues to fire, batting at No 3, he could set the base for a comfortable retention of the Ashes, such is his scoring ability.

He had a relatively low key Ashes in 2013/14, by the standards of what he has since achieved, as he scored 327 runs, at an average of 40, and Stuart Broad has talked a big game in England looking to exploit apparent weaknesses in his technique.

But talking it and doing it are two very different creatures and Smith has the stroke play to heavily punish England’s inconsistent pace attack and lack of a front line spinner.

Michael Clarke

The importance of Clarke with the bat has been overshadowed somewhat by the rise of Smith, but an in-form Clarke will be crucial to Australia retaining the Ashes.

His hundreds in Brisbane and Adelaide set the tone for Australia’s whitewash of England in 2013/14 and as one of the best players of spin in the world, he is well poised to highlight the host side’s limited options in that department.

As captain his creative thinking will be a big asset in the field. If he could cause England trouble in 2013 with a limited bowling attack, imagine what he can do with a good one now.

Shane Watson

Watson is a weird all-rounder in that he does not score big runs or take many wickets, yet he is still important to Australia.

His main use to Clarke is with the ball in his ability to hold an end down and allow the attack bowlers to rest up, without the scoreboard running away from Australia.

He bowled 85.3 overs in England two years ago, and while he only took two wickets, 38 of those were maiden overs and he only conceded 179 runs, ensuring that England’s batsmen remained stifled.

While he is never going to run through England with a ball, he is difficult for sides to attack, and Clarke can use him with confidence when Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Johnson and Josh Hazlewood, the side’s strike bowlers, need to rest up.

Do not expect headlines from Watson, either with bat or ball, but he will play an important role.

Bowling

Australia struggled to really hurt England with the ball two years ago, as Ryan Harris apart they lacked firepower to run through their opponents’ batting order cheaply.

Starc was on that tour, but struggled to make an effect as he took 11 wickets in three Tests, but he is an improved bowler since then.

That was highlighted by his efforts with the ball in the victorious World Cup campaign and also in Twenty20 cricket.

There are questions on whether he is as effective with the red ball, but his 10 wickets against the West Indies last month showed the threat he poses, and England can expect a much harder challenge than before.

Then there is Mitchell Johnson, who took 20 wickets in England in 2009, but did so expensively, going at six an over at Lord’s.

He was in such a funk that he did not tour two years ago, but his hostile spells in 2013/14, as he took 37 wickets, were the catalyst for Australia’s whitewash win.

Johnson and Starc are the X-factors in the Australia attack that Clarke did not have two years ago, but while the wickets in England are unlikely to carry too much pace compared to those in Australia, both men are better bowlers than they were and should have the guile to still cause England’s top order problems.

Lower order batting

Australia have traditionally batted deep and that will not change this time around.

It was easily forgotten the effect the lower order had on Australia’s whitewash in 2013/14 as often in first innings their top order had been in trouble.

The average score for Australia losing their first five wickets in the first innings of matches in 2013/14 was 141.8, but the average score added by their last five wickets was 214.2 — a real game changing figure.

There is no reason not to expect more of the same this time with Brad Haddin, Johnson, Josh Hazlewood and Peter Siddle all capable batsmen, and their ability to add an extra 50 or a 100 runs to their totals will only put more pressure on England.