Is this the year the Spurs finally slow down?
Every year it feels unfair to ask the question, and yet every year the Spurs do get a little bit older. This year, though, it feels like any doubt about San Antonio’s advanced age is even more unnecessary, after they wiped the floor with LeBron James and the Heat in one of the most shockingly lopsided NBA Finals in league history. With enough gas apparently still in the Duncan-Parker-Ginobili tank, Gregg Popovich still coaching like Gregg Popovich and Kawhi Leonard on the rise, the Spurs are as threatening as ever.
The rest of the best in the West
The Western Conference is, truly, a gauntlet. With an in-prime Big Three of Chris Paul-Blake Griffin-DeAndre Jordan, added depth and Donald Sterling’s stink washed off, the Clippers are a hot pick to win this conference. But if the Thunder can come upon the right mix to give Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook support, Oklahoma City will be very hard to beat. And the Rockets rightly fancy their chances with Dwight Howard and James Harden given another year to gel. Behind them lurk dangerous teams like the Warriors and Trail Blazers, and any of the Grizzlies, Mavericks, Suns and maybe even Pelicans and Nuggets could contend for a play-off spot. One way or another, the conference will be a heavyweight battle royale.
Challengers to King James’ throne
He may not have won the title last year, but LeBron can at least still say his team has won the lesser East each of the last four years. This year, the Pacers have already been sunk by Paul George’s injury, and the Heat, well, lost LeBron. Miami should still be decent, but not good enough to really scare Cleveland. The Wizards, Raptors and Hornets are fun, ambitious teams with good young cores, but ultimately probably need a bit more.
The most interesting team here are the Bulls, who with All NBA first team centre Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose returning could have the star wattage to trouble the Cavs. The additions of Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott and the returning depth of players like Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy and Kirk Hinrich give them a lot of intriguing parts that could add up to a kind of 2004 Detroit Pistons feel.
Rookie race
It’s almost hard to remember the last time there were this many bright talents being thrust onto teams that will ask them to carry a big load right away. Jabari Parker has looked like the early Rookie of the Year favourite in pre-season with the Bucks, but Andrew Wiggins (Timberwolves), Nerlens Noel (76ers), Marcus Smart (Celtics), Julius Randle (Lakers), Nik Stauskas (Kings) and Elfrid Payton (Magic) are all mature talents playing on otherwise hopeless teams. High upside players like Aaron Gordon (Magic), Dante Exum (Jazz) and Zach LaVine (Timberwolves) could break out. Or rookies on good teams like McDermott with Chicago or Noah Vonleh with Charlotte could become legitimate role players and get a shot at the award. Or yet still, European imports like Mirotic from Real Madrid to Chicago or Bojan Bogdanovic from Fenerbahce to Brooklyn could take star turns.
It will be fun to follow the fresh faces in the league this year.
What next?
Adam Silver begins his first full year as NBA commissioner. He’s already been faced with crises like the racial controversies sparked by Clippers and Hawks owners and executives, and heralded major successes like the massive new TV deal the league has signed. Add to that the constant buzz about a possible change to the lottery system to disincentivise tanking and basketball’s continued growth as a international sport, and it seems Silver has a wide open opportunity to put his mark on the NBA.
PREDICTIONS
All-NBA first team
Chris Paul(Los Angeles Clippers): The point guard, 29, has been one of the elite five for the past three seasons, and there is no reason to expect him to drop off as he spearheads a team that many think can be the best in the Western Conference.
Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors): The NBA's sweetest shooter established himself as a top-five player last season, even if he was not universally recognised as such. The Warriors point guard, 26, won't be bumped to the second team in 2014/15.
LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers): What's there to say? The sun will rise in the east tomorrow, what goes up must come down and, barring only an unforeseen catastrophic injury or something, LeBron, 29, is a lock for the All NBA first team.
Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans): This is the toughest call. Surely Kevin Love and Blake Griffin will have arguments. Kevin Durant would be a lock if he wasn't going to miss two months. Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki and even maybe Kawhi Leonard will have a shot. But the hunch is that Davis, 21, takes another great leap and outshines the rest.
DeAndre Jordan (Los Angeles Clippers): There's no true superstar centre right now in the vein of a Shaq or Hakeem Olajuwon or even vintage Dwight Howard, but Jordan, 26, was close to Joakim Noah last year and has some room for a little more growth.
Eastern Conference play-off teams (in order, kind of):
Cleveland Cavaliers: No trouble here for LeBron and Co.
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose’s health is, of course, the major X-factor.
Washington Wizards: John Wall and Bradley Beal propel them near top of conference.
Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry the heart of a team that could overachieve.
Charlotte Hornets: Lance Stephenson addition is big, a healthy Big Al Jefferson is (literally and figuratively) huge.
Miami Heat: Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are still here, at least.
Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford’s return helps keep them in the mix.
New York Knicks: A lot of Carmelo Anthony and some Phil Jackson influence get them to respectability.
Western Conference play-off teams (in order, sort of):
San Antonio Spurs: The defending champs should walk through the regular season.
Los Angeles Clippers: Highest potential of any team in the conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Will be interesting to see how they do for a bit without Durant.
Houston Rockets: Play-off disappointment may again await, but they’ll get there easily.
Golden State Warriors: Some interesting breakout potential on this roster.
Portland Trail Blazers: Intriguing team if Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge consolidate gains.
Phoenix Suns: This is maybe more wishful thinking, but they’re a fun team.
New Orleans Pelicans: Longshot, but if Anthony Davis fulfils all that potential it’s fun to imagine.
Eastern finals: Cavs d Bulls in 6. The interesting mix in Chicago makes this a more exciting series than many expect, but ultimately LeBron, Love and Irving are too much.
Western finals: Clippers d Spurs in 7. Chris Paul finally reaches the promised land of the NBA Finals as San Antonio's age catches up to them just a little.
NBA Finals: Cavs d Clippers in 6. It's the most obvious pick, and it's also probably the right pick. LeBron is too good and has too much around him, though the Clips give Cleveland trouble inside in this series.
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