Rosberg or Hamilton? F1 drivers’ title race update + Abu Dhabi scenarios

Graham Caygill explains how the F1 drivers' championship stands following Sunday's Mexican Grand Prix.

Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes waves to the crowd after winning the Mexican Grand Prix on Sunday. Pedro Pardo / AFP / October 30, 2016

The destiny of the Formula One drivers' title race remains out of the reigning champion Lewis Hamilton's hands despite his win in Mexico on Sunday. Graham Caygill explains:

The Briton is 19 points behind Mercedes-GP teammate Nico Rosberg, who finished second on Sunday, with only two rounds remaining on this year's calendar: in Brazil (November 13) and the Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (November 27).

Even if Hamilton, 31, wins the races at Interlagos and at Yas Marina Circuit that will still not be enough if Rosberg can finish second in one of the remaining two grands prix and third in the other one. If that scenario played out the 31-year-old German would win the championship by two points.

The momentum is with Hamilton, however. This was his second successive dominant victory, coming seven days after he had also prevailed in the United States, and the triple world champion’s confidence will have grown from being comfortably quicker than his teammate throughout the weekend in Mexico.

Rosberg, however, knows what it takes to win in Brazil. He has won there the past two years, having also clinched pole position on both occasions. Hamilton, on the other hand, has never been triumphant there in nine attempts with either Mercedes or McLaren, his previous team. A win for Rosberg, or outscoring Hamilton by seven points in Sao Paulo, will clinch the title for the championship leader.

After Hamilton’s success in Mexico one of the Mercedes pair is guaranteed to make unwanted history come the end of the season for winning the most races without being champion. The record was seven, but Hamilton now has eight victories in 2016 while Rosberg currently has nine.

• Brazil: 1 Rosberg 2 Hamilton

• Abu Dhabi: Rosberg will have already won title

• Brazil: 1 Hamilton 2 Rosberg

• Abu Dhabi: Rosberg leads by 12, 3rd guarantees title

• Brazil: 1 Hamilton 3 Rosberg

• Abu Dhabi: Rosberg leads by 9, 2nd guarantees title

• Brazil: 1 or 2 or 3 Hamilton DNF Rosberg

• Abu Dhabi: Hamilton would lead by 6, or trail by 1 or by 4, either way meaning the title would pretty much be decided head-to-head by whoever wins

• Brazil: 1 Hamilton 7 Rosberg (equal his worst finish of the season, in Monaco)

• Abu Dhabi: Hamilton and Rosbeg would be dead-even on 355 points entering the finale.

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