Premier League progress report: Injuries could cost Bournemouth place in top flight next season

Callum Wilson, centre, and Matt Ritchie, right, have been excellent for Bournemouth in the Premier League this season. Ben Stansall / AFP

With the Premier League season well underway, Richard Jolly provides a progress report of the three promoted teams. Here, he focuses on Bournemouth.

Part I: Premier League progress report: Which way are Norwich City headed?

Part II: Premier League progress report: Odion Ighalo goals and defence give Watford plenty to cheer

The start

Difficult. Dropped into the relegation zone with Saturday’s 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United, which was their fourth successive loss. They have gone six games without a win and, on paper, their next seven matches – including meetings with Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal – look harder than the last seven.

Bournemouth arrived in the top flight for the first time with the backdrop of a romantic rise from the brink of extinction. Their maiden win, 4-3 at West Ham United, was an exhilarating affair. Yet while it is a cliche that promoted teams rely on their home form, it is also true. Despite a friendly fixture list, Bournemouth only have one win at the Vitality Stadium so far.

Reasons to be optimistic

Bournemouth play good football. They keep the ball well, averaging 52 per cent of possession so far this season. They had 20 attempts at goal against Newcastle, yet none went in, and they genuinely have been unfortunate at times. They are entitled to think their luck could change soon. In Matt Ritchie, they have a midfielder has shown he can be productive in the top flight. The influential Harry Arter, who missed the start of the season, is fit again and back in the side. And, polite and fresh-faced as manager Eddie Howe is, over the years his teams have shown resilience and a capacity to battle back from adversity.

They have a team spirit and a progressive ethos that has served them well.

Reasons to be pessimistic

The injury list. Arguably no team has been hit harder. Captain Tommy Elphick may be back before Christmas but Max Gradel and Tyrone Mings, the two biggest signings in their history, and top scorer Callum Wilson will all miss much of the season. Wilson is a particular loss: not just for his goals – five in seven games – but because he brings the pace to stretch teams. Without him, Bournemouth either have to field Glenn Murray, a scorer but a much slower player who does not give them that outlet, or Josh King, who is electric but an erratic finisher. On-loan Chelsea winger Christian Atsu, another who would have offered speed, is also injured.

Plus they have defensive concerns. They have conceded 13 goals in their last four games, with five apiece against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur. Goalkeeper Artur Boruc was dropped after an error-riddled display against Spurs but there are legitimate questions if his replacement, Adam Federici, also makes too many mistakes. Minus Mings, Howe’s first-choice back four are all survivors of their League One days. This could be a leap too far for Elphick, Steve Cook, Charlie Daniels and Simon Francis.

The X-factor

The January transfer window. Bournemouth spent around £25 million (nearly Dh140m) in the summer, they have new investors in American equity firm Peak 6 and owner Maxim Demin has the wealth and ambition to suggest they could be buyers again. With Wilson sidelined, a striker will be a priority. Yet while Howe’s preference is to recruit players with experience in England, it is crucial that, whoever Bournemouth target, they are still in contention by then. It will be far harder to attract high-calibre players if they are cast adrift at the foot of the table.

Key Man

Ritchie. Wilson, who has a cruciate knee ligament injury, has scored five of Bournemouth's 12 goals.

Ritchie and Murray are next with two, and the striker has lost his place in the team. Scotland international Ritchie, who recorded 15 goals and 17 assists last season, has the capacity to strike from outside the box, which adds another dimension to Bournemouth’s play. He is also a set-piece specialist and Bournemouth’s chances could rest with his left foot.

Prediction

Relegated, sadly.

A combination of the injuries and defensive difficulties could defeat them. If that does not, a difficult final eight games of the season might. Keeping them up might rank as Howe’s greatest achievement yet, and he was named the Football League’s manager of the decade.

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