Iceland, Wales, Slovakia, Poland, England, Northern Ireland, Austria, Croatia and Denmark. Congratulations to anyone who managed to predict those nine frontrunners because, surely, it wasn’t supposed to be this way.
Instead, virtually every Euro 2016 qualifying group is led by an outsider. Despite stiff competition, the title of the most improbable pacesetter has to be contested by two of the continent’s most northerly and western outposts.
Iceland and Northern Ireland were both fifth seeds who, after three games, find themselves first and with 100 per cent records
Yet as Iceland reached a play-off to qualify for the World Cup, surely the mantle of the ultimate underdogs rests with Norhtern Ireland.
Two years ago, they fell to 129th in the world rankings. Last year, they lost to Luxembourg. Now they are starting to eye an achievement that would bracket them alongside the province’s greats, the teams that reached the 1958, 1982 and 1986 World Cups.
“It would mean going down in history as one of the best teams to come out of the country, or at least be a debating point,” defender Aaron Hughes told the Times. “It would mean becoming heroes, I suppose. Legends.”
Sixteen years and 93 caps into his international career, the centre-back’s eminence came through longevity. Now Northern Ireland’s most experienced player is eyeing a place at Euro 2016.
He and his teammates are in Bucharest on Friday, facing Romania. It is the sort of fixture that tended to produce a defeat that attracted little comment. After all, when this campaign began, Northern Ireland only had two competitive away wins since 2007, and one of those was against San Marino.
When they went 1-0 down in Hungary in September, it seemed entirely predictable. What followed was not. Niall McGinn and Kyle Lafferty scored in a late comeback. Then, after beating the Faroe Islands in Belfast, they went to top seeds Greece. Jamie Ward and Lafferty struck. After two meaningful away victories in seven years, Northern Ireland had two in as many games.
As Romania have home advantage in a top-of-the-table clash and seven points from a possible nine themselves, Michael O’Neill’s side are underdogs again. What they have, in keeping with their finest traditions, is a man who can find the net in international football.
Lafferty has struck in each of the three qualifiers. “He’s facing international defenders who just can’t handle him,” said O’Neill last month. Championship defenders, on the other hand, have halted him. Lafferty is yet to score for his club, Norwich City.
But his prolific run for his country is starting to bear similarities with David Healy’s golden spell. Improbably, the record for the most goals in a single European Championship qualifying campaign is held by a Northern Irishman. Healy struck 13 times in his valiant efforts to take them to Euro 2008. Despite that proof of his predatory skills, he finished his career with just five Premier League goals to his name.
Now, once again, Northern Ireland are looking to men at lower levels. O’Neill’s squad includes six players from Scottish clubs and seven from England’s third tier. It is hard to call it star-studded.
Captain Steven Davis was the only Premier League regular to feature in last month’s win in Greece and he has been ruled out of Friday night’s game with a hamstring problem. Manchester United’s Jonny Evans, the player with most pedigree, is yet to feature because of injuries. Instead, Northern Ireland’s United representative is Paddy McNair, a veteran of four first-team appearances.
The three Northern Ireland teams that did progress to tournaments included many of the region’s greats, from Harry Gregg, Danny Blanchflower and Peter McParland in 1958 through to Pat Jennings and Norman Whiteside in the 1980s. The current crop do not possess such talent but their start is a triumph of the collective, of organisation and determination. And now it is a question of how far it will carry them.
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