Mets’ power pitching v Royals’ contact hitters
The New York Mets pitchers throw the ball hard.
The Kansas City Royals do not care. Putting the ball in play is a Royals forte. They do it better than anyone.
Kansas City posted the highest contact rate of any team in the regular season (83 per cent) and have continued that into the post-season (81 per cent).
The Royals put their bats on anything in the strike zone, which perhaps makes them immune to the Mets strikeout artists Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, all of whom average better than 152 kph on their fastballs.
This particular battle of team strengths may be the most important, and most frequently occurring, in the series. Kansas City’s ability to not just make contact, but to square the ball up and hit it hard, may determine the champion.
In a New York minute
New York must score in the early innings if they want to win their first championship since 1986.
The Mets have been on a nice run-scoring roll in the post-season, averaging about five per game against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.
Second baseman Daniel Murphy cannot be expected to continue his record-setting run of home runs in six consecutive games, or stay as productive (11 runs, 11 runs batted in). But whoever else steps up for the Mets – Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda – had better not wait until late in the game because Kansas City’s elite bullpen have been as good as ever in the post-season.
The Royals’ late-innings trio of Luke Hochevar, Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis have allowed just one run in 21 combined innings pitched.
Mets closer Jeurys Familia has been equally stingy, permitting no runs and two hits in 9 2/3 innings. But he is just one man.
If ninth-inning rallies will be defying the odds for either side, the Mets will be hard-pressed to rally in the seventh or eighth, as well.
No advantage at home
Home-field advantage is not as much of a factor in baseball, often disappearing as soon as a dominant visiting pitcher takes the mound.
What is relevant in this series are the two ballparks, Kauffman Stadium at Kansas City and Citi Field at New York.
Both are among the more spacious, a factor which favours the Royals and their vaunted defence.
It is not just the one error they have committed in 11 post-season games.
By all advanced metric measures, Kansas City are the best fielding team in baseball.
Their speedy outfielders, particularly Lorenzo Cain in centre, will routinely catch shallow flies, balls hit to the fence and drives in the gaps.
Each ballpark presents an advantage for Kansas City.
Conclusion
The Mets stable of young starters may be the glamour boys of the series. The Royals, as a team, do the little things well.
Kansas City win a first championship since 1985.
Verdict Kansas City win the World Series in six games over the New York Mets
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