The National’s resident basketball fans Jonathan Raymond and Kevin Jeffers count down the days until the NBA’s October 26 tip-off by discussing the league’s hottest talking points.
Today, they look at the rookies.
• More: See our full 5-part NBA season preview
• Raymond: Rookies. They're the best. Everything until they're nothing, limitless potential right up until they play.
Lucky for us, they haven’t played for real yet! Heck, Ben Simmons probably won’t even play til next year!
Okay, so this rookie class has some potential to, I dunno, maybe look kind of underwhelming a few years down the road? I hate to be pessimistic already, but scan the draft list and a shockingly high number seem like real bust risks.
Dragan Bender could be the next Dirk Nowitzki (or Kristaps Porzingis) for all we know – what we do know is you’re more likely to wind up with Andrea Bargnani than Dirk. Marquese Chriss was widely described as high-risk, high-reward heading into the draft. Thon Maker was a YouTube sensation years ago, then it came time for the draft and it turned out nobody thought he was worth even a first round selection. Well, until the Bucks took 10th, at least. Georgios Papagiannis was never even a YouTube sensation, the Kings took him 13th.
The point is there could be some fantastic flameouts from these rookies. But nonetheless, there are some guys I think have real star potential.
Before I get into them, though, who do you like? Sorry in advance if it was Georgios Papagiannis.
• Jeffers: The Simmons news stinks. I was looking forward to seeing what he can do with a real NBA coach and system, something he drastically lacked in one showcase season at LSU.
I think you and I are both bullish on Jaylen Brown. I can’t remember a pick this high going into a ready-made contender the way he is with Boston. And it’s not as though his coach is Larry Brown or Byron Scott – Brad Stephens is going to get the most out of this guy, and find minutes for him while juggling minutes for players who can help the Celtics win now.
That said, unless Brown comes out microwave hot, he’s not going to get the minutes necessary to put up Rookie of the Year numbers. Brandon Ingram will with the Lakers, and is probably the early favourite for Rookie of the Year. From what I’ve seen, he’s a ready-made star in a market in need of one. He and D’Angelo Russell could be a fun pairing for a long time.
I’ll throw out one other name, one that came into the league as one of the college ball’s biggest stars and wound up in a place in desperate need of his specific skillset: Buddy Hield in New Orleans. He lit the basketball world on fire last NCAA tournament, and is one of the best shooters to come into the league in years. He’s a boom-or-bust guy (aren’t all rookies?), but if things click in New Orleans and Anthony Davis stays healthy, he’ll find the type of space to put up a few 20-point nights.
• Raymond: I think Hield has a great opportunity to settle in as a second/third weapon in New Orleans, a three-point bomber on a team kind of bereft of them. The question is can he play defence?
If he can be a plus defender, he becomes a two-way fringe star and the kind of boost that makes the Pelicans a play-off team (presuming Anthony Davis is near the top of his game). If he can’t defend NBA wings, then you’re talking about a guy who may not be able to hold down a starting spot. I don’t know – and I don’t mean that in the doubting kind of way, I just literally have no idea yet with Hield.
Regarding Ingram, I think there’s a substantial chance Ingram becomes in short manner the Lakers’ superstar bridge from the Kobe era. They always seem to find one like that.
And man it’s lazy to throw out the Kevin Durant comparison with Ingram - but, uh, he looks like he could be pretty Durant-esqe. (“First person I can say, that I can look at him and feel like I’m looking in the mirror,” Durant himself said)
Basically what I’m getting at is I think Ingram will be big, fast.
And I’m still not ruling out Brown finding his way into the Celtics starting line-up at some point this season. I know Brad Stevens and Danny Ainge love Avery Bradley, I know they want Marcus Smart in there, and Isaiah Thomas isn’t going anywhere, so at that point you’re really squeezed. But Brown to me has that Draymond Green-esque ability to guard up, and could maybe wind up playing the four for them (like Green, he is 6ft 7in) in a super-small line-up where Al Horford is the centre. I’d really, really enjoy watching that.
I’ve mentioned before in this series that Timothe Luwawu was my favourite blank canvass in the draft. By that I mean, I’ve watched him a couple times with Mega Leks – a good European team – and he he’s incredibly fluid, shows a lot of creativity, pretty-looking shot. The question then, like with many European prospects, is will it at all translate to the NBA? Mega Leks play at a high level in Europe, but they’re not a Euroleague team.
By that same token, his new teammate Furkan Korkmaz (Turkey) is two years younger (19) and was picked two spots later (26th). He’s been an all-star in the Turkish league and played Euroleague basketball with Anadolu Efes, is long and can knock down a three (41.8 per cent in 38 games last two seasons). He might be the better of the two.
In any case for all the hype Philly’s bigger guys like Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Dario Saric (and Simmons) get, I’m excited to watch their wings too.
Then there are some guys like Denzel Valentine and Domantas Sabonis that I think are in real good situations to thrive in as role players. I know you’re high on DeAndre’ Bembry.
For a few of the concerns I have about some of the guys at the top of this draft, I am optimistic about some of the quality that could emerge out of relative obscurity in this class.
And we haven’t even mentioned Jamal Murray or Kris Dunn yet.
• Jeffers: Dunn was a popular guy before the season but has had a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad pre-season. I think it could be a while before he cracks the starting line-up for a coach who frankly won't have patience for growing pains.
And I’ll stop you right there on the Ingram-Durant stuff. They may look similar physically, but Durant is the most gifted player since Michael Jordan when it comes to putting basketballs through basketball nets. Ingram has a nice all-around game, but I wouldn’t even pencil him in as even a 20-point scorer any time soon.
This is where we need to actually take a step back and temper expectations. There aren't any Karl-Anthony Towns rookies in this class. Embiid (whom we also talked about) is probably the most prodigious quote-unquote-rookie, followed maybe by his teammate Saric. But both are complete unknowns at this level, and no one has any idea how the rotation in Philly will shake out this year.
I always defer to your knowledge on European guys, because I just don’t have the bandwidth to keep up with them. I am indeed high on Bembry, who was one of the handful of best players in the Summer League and perhaps already the Hawks’ best passer, but he’s not going to score at this level for a couple years. I guess I’m more interested on how this class will shape up this year, and I’m not overly excited with Simmons having to sit out.
It might not be as bad as the years when Michael Carter-Williams or Tyreke Evans won Rookie of the Year, but if it’s a player like Ingram or Hield winning with a 15.0 PPG average, it means there probably wasn’t any player who totally stood out.
In that vein, Murray might actually be a sneaky-smart ROY pick. Denver has a lot of intriguing wing and front-court players who could use a dependable scoring threat from the perimeter, where Murray will have to beat out Will Barton and Emmanuel Mudiay for opportunities. But that’s doable. If he emerges, he could give Denver’s promising front court the perfect backcourt-scoring complement and push close to 18.0 PPG or so.
• Raymond: Wow, we've put a lot of words into this one. Rookies are interesting! (Certainly more interesting than predicting this year's NBA Finals)
Anyway at the risk of exhaustion (congratulations, by the way, if you’ve made it this far) here’s a couple final shoutouts: Pat McCaw, who should actually play a valuable role for Golden State off the bench, Zhou Qi, who did well at a recent Asian clubs tournament in China for Xinjiang Flying Tigers, remember the Rockets pick’s (43rd) name, Diamond Stone, a guy who has produced at every level and could emerge from under the radar as an important Clippers contributor, Paul Zipser, a German Bayern Munich product who Bulls fans have been falling in love with in pre-season.
And I’m going with Jaylen Brown for RoY. It was my first gut instinct earlier in the summer and I understand the playing time complications, but he’s my favourite player, in the best situation right. Surveying the rest of the rookie landscape, and I’m inclined go out on a limb and say he’ll break through somehow.
Follow us on Twitter @NatSportUAE
Like us on Facebook at facebook.com/TheNationalSport
