India v England Test series: On-form India will rely on Ravichandran Ashwin’s bowling

India's bowler Ravichandran Ashwin during the third Test with New Zealand at the Holkar Cricket Stadium in Indore. Punit Paranipe / AFP

In sport, it’s almost futile to read too much into the past, however recent.

If you go by how England’s slow bowlers struggled to contain Bangladesh, and how Mehedi Hasan, the rookie off-spinner, ran rings around the batsmen, it would be easy to conclude that the visitors are on a hiding to nothing against an India team that recently thrashed New Zealand 3-0.

If Hasan, who was captaining the Under 19s earlier this year, could wreak such havoc, what will Ravichandran Ashwin, the off-spinner rated the best bowler in the world, do to them?

And if Moeen Ali, Adil Rashid and Gareth Batty could not give Alastair Cook a measure of control against Tamim Iqbal and company, what chance do they have against Virat Kohli and friends?

If only predicting cricket results were that simple.

A spate of injuries has meant that confidence in the Indian camp isn’t quite cumulus-high anymore. Lokesh Rahul, Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan — two of whom would have been certain to play — will miss at least two Tests, and Bhuvneshwar Kumar also has not recovered from the back injury sustained against New Zealand.

What that means is that India will likely go into the first Test in Rajkot with an opening partnership of Murali Vijay and Gautam Gambhir.

Vijay has been one of the vital cogs in the XI for a while, but Gambhir, who was last a regular in the side when England toured in 2012, would not be there if not for the injuries to Dhawan (hand) and Rahul (hamstring).

A place will surely be found for Rahul, who has three hundreds in nine Tests, once he is fit again, but the individual with most to worry is Rohit. After questions about his place in the Test side, he had made three assured half-centuries to start the home season.

If Kohli and the team management decide to play six specialist batsmen and not five front-line bowlers, Karnataka’s Karun Nair — who averages 52.68 in first-class cricket, and has started the Ranji Trophy season with scores of 74, 54 not out, 53 and 145 — could be in line for a debut.

Given that both Cheteshwar Pujara and Ravundra Jadeja, the two local boys, have made massive triple-centuries in Rajkot, at a venue designed to look like the Lord’s of the East, Nair could not hope for a more favourable baptism.

Indian cricket venerates its batsmen, but the key to success in this series will be the bowling of Ashwin, whose 12 wickets in 2012 cost more than 50 apiece.

He is a vastly different bowler now though, a fact borne out by his mind-blowing numbers since the tour of England in 2014.

In 18 Tests, he has taken 113 wickets at 20.15. The strike-rate of 40.3 is up there with the most devastating bowlers in Test history, and there have been three 10-wicket hauls in the past year.

England’s top order had the resilience of crepe paper in Bangladesh, and so much will depend on Cook — who made three hundreds on the last tour, and Joe Root, who averages nearly 102 after six Tests against India.

But the Indians will also not take Moeen and Rashid lightly.

Moeen’s best figures (six for 67) came against India in 2014, and it was only a decade ago that India were nudged towards defeat in a home Test by the unsung offspin of Shaun Udal.

“Rajkot and Visakhapatnam [which hosts the second Test] will be pivotal,” Ravi Shastri, who was India’s team director till April, said.

“On those low and slow pitches, India could dominate.

“By the time England figure out what’s what, they might be 2-0 down.”

India’s 13-match unbeaten run (10 wins) stretches back to August 2015.

England, who have won nine of the last 13 Tests between the two teams, losing just two, will hope to upset the form book once again, as they did so memorably in 2006 (1-1) and 2012 (2-1).

India v England fixtures

• First Test Wednesday-November 13, Rajkot

• Second Test November 17-21, Vishakhapatnam

• Third Test Nov 26-30, Mohali

• Fourth Test December 8-12, Mumbai

• Fifth Test Dec 16-20, Chennai

• Three ODI begin from January 15, 2017

• Three T20Is begin from January 26, 2017

Bengaluru FC do India proud

He may have been preparing for the first Test against England, but the significance of another sporting event across the Arabian Sea wasn’t lost on Ashwin. “Landmark day for Indian Sports and Football!” he tweeted. “All the best @bengalurufc the entire nation is rooting for you. Bring home the cup! #AFCFinal”

The AFC Cup final between Iraq’s Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya and Bengaluru FC was supposed to be a home match for the Iraqis, but with the game being played at the Suheim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha, a couple of the stands were draped in the dark blue that Bengaluru usually wear.

Several of the West Block Blues, who have served as such an effective 12th man during this campaign, had made the journey to West Asia, but their team couldn’t quite cross the final hurdle. And in truth, once the Iraqis wrested control in the second half, they didn’t really come close.

Since the tournament began in 2004, only West Asian sides had won Asian club football’s second-tier competition. That changed last year – Malaysia’s Johor Darul Ta-zim were crowned champions – only because two Kuwaiti teams that had registered thumping victories in the semifinal first legs were thrown out after FIFA suspended the national federation.

Bengaluru matched Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya for the first half hour, but with Amjad Radhi growing increasingly influential, the Iraqis gradually took charge. In a game low on quality, it was Radhi’s delightful jinking run in the 70th minute that led to the game’s only goal. Having taken possession outside the box, he left three defenders in his wake before squaring the ball for Hammadi Ahmad to direct it home with his left boot.

It was Ahmad’s 16th goal of the tournament, a remarkable scoring streak broken only by a failure to find the net in the first leg of the semifinal. For Bengaluru, Sunil Chhetri’s whose two goals had beaten Johor and taken them to the final, showed glimpses of quality, but the best chance came in the 87th minute.

A free kick from wide on the left found CK Vineeth in acres of space to the right of the six-yard box. He connected more with air than ball, and it trickled wide. That summed up Bengaluru’s night – a tame end to an exceptional campaign.

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