Germany could join the growing World Cup casualty list

Such is the tightness of the group that if the Germans beat Ghana, they can finish top, yet if they lose, they will be out of the tournament.

Cacau is likely to start in place of Miroslave Klose for Germany against Ghana.

JOHANNESBURG // As Cacau, the Brazilian-born German forward, tapped in to score the concluding goal in the 4-0 drubbing of Australia 10 days ago, few football followers would have thought that Joachim Loew's men could today be on the verge of facing their earliest ever exit from a World Cup. Loew, the Germany coach, will take his side to Johannesburg's Soccer City to face Ghana in their final match of Group D.

He would surely have hoped that his most important game as the national team manager this summer would take place at the iconic 94,000-seat stadium, but even he must never have imagined it would arrive so soon. As it stands, Ghana sit top of the group with four points, while Germany and Serbia have one point less. Australia, despite losing Harry Kewell to an early bath after 25 minutes, hung on for a draw against the Africans, and so have one point and a glimmer of hope.

Such is the tightness of the group that if the Germans win, they can finish top, yet if they lose, they will be out of the tournament. Milovan Rajevac, the Serbia-born Ghana coach, said he would be "more than happy" with a scoreless stalemate against Germany and early indicators would suggest it is a real possibility. The Ghanaians have yet to score in open play, while Miroslav Klose, Loew's first-choice forward, is suspended and will be replaced by an as yet unnamed striker - most likely to be Cacau.

But if there is one thing the past two weeks of football has taught fans - aside from taking ear-plugs to any match involving the vuvuzela-tooting South Africans - it is that nothing at this World Cup can be predicted. Serbia have already sprung a surprise by beating the much-fancied Germans and both the Ghanaian and German camps are confident they can score the goals to secure qualification. "Despite the defeat there were many positive things from the Serbia match and we have drawn our lessons from that," Loew said.

"The general tempo against Ghana will be higher than Serbia; the Serbs were a bit slow out of the blocks and they had a draw in mind with only one forward. It will be quicker, but fitness is written with a capital F in the Germany squad and we can cope with it." Ghana have shown their fitness and physicality in their two previous matches, but it was their wastefulness in attack against the Australians that is most concerning for supporters who want to see an African side in the last 16.

"We squandered a lot of scoring chances, but we must avoid this in the next game," said Asamoah Gyan, the Ghanaian forward who, despite scoring twice from the penalty spot, has struggled as a lone striker. "We'll correct those mistakes against Germany." An added element to the crunch game is that of the Boateng brothers. Jerome Boateng, the defender who signed for Manchester City this summer, plays for Germany although he has yet to start in South Africa, while his half brother Kevin-Prince, born in Berlin to the same Ghanaian father, is an attacking midfielder for the Black Stars.

Kevin-Prince is reviled in his homeland after injuring Michael Ballack, the German captain, while playing for Portsmouth against Chelsea in the English FA Cup final. Local press nicknamed him "Der Uebeltreter", which can be roughly translated as "the evil stomper", and the elder of the two brothers is ready to fuel the hatred further. "I don't care if Germany gets booted out of the tournament," said Kevin-Prince.

"We want to win and move on. If we score a goal, we'll do a nice little dance for our German colleagues." [e-mail]

Ghana (4 points, +1 goal difference) If Ghana draw with Germany, they will be through. Even a defeat would be enough to see them qualify if Australia beat Serbia - but not by a big score. Germany (3 points, +3 goals) Germany would advance with a victory over Ghana. A draw should be enough if Serbia do not defeat Australia. Serbia (3 points, 0 goals) Serbia need a victory to guarantee their place in the last 16, although a draw will suffice if Germany lose. Australia (1 point, -4 goals) If Australia win and Germany lose, they advance. If Germany do not lose, they will almost certainly need a big win over Serbia.