Uefa Champions League last 16: Pep Guardiola’s Bayern are depleted, Juve can win this

Bayern Munich not only haven't been their same recipients of Pep Guardiola's magic European touch that Barca were, their back four is battered, making Juventus a genuinely imposing threat, writes Ian Hawkey.

Bayern Munich manager Pep Guardiola shown during his team's Bundesliga match against Augsburg last weekend. Andreas Gebert / EPA / February 14, 2016

The Lowdown

There will be talk of this tie being 'worthy of a final': The German champions against the Serie A title-holders; the two clubs who, mid-February, topped their domestic tables. And both reached the last four of the Champions League last season, Juventus finishing runners-up. So, yes, worthy of a final except that reaching European Cup finals has become tantalisingly hard for Bayern Munich under Pep Guardiola, beaten comfortably at the penultimate hurdle in their two years under his management.

How They Got Here

Juve found themselves in probably the most devilish first-phase pool, filled with opponents from each of the leading European leagues. They could only share the points over two matches against Germany’s Borussia Monchengladbach – two draws – and against Spain’s Sevilla – a win and a loss – and though they took six points off Manchester City, City finished a point ahead of the Old Lady.

Bayern suffered one setback, with a defeat at Arsenal in a group that ultimately proved far more taxing for the English club than the Germans. In their other five games, they racked up 19 goals and a full complement of points at the expense of Dinamo Zagreb, Olympiakos and an Arsenal who were beaten 5-1 in Munich.

Key Players

Sami Khedira, Juventus – He has been a lucky charm for Juventus this season ... when he's been fit. He was missing with injury when they struggled in the early part of their campaign, but had yet to experience defeat as a starter by the time they reached the top of the Italian table on February 13th. Needs to show Germany manager Jogi Loew he is fit and peaking ahead of Euro 2016.

Douglas Costa, Bayern Munich – The Brazilian winger made a superb start to his Bayern career, and has the capacity to trouble a Juventus defence which is a little ageing, if solid. He will also make Juve's full-backs wary of too much adventurous pushing forward, because of his speed and skill on the break.

Points to Prove

Mario Mandzukic, Juventus – Juventus' Croatian striker, who hopes to be fully recovered from a muscle problem in time for the first leg, is not the first centre-forward to have been moved on swiftly from a Pep Guardiola squad, as he was from Bayern in the summer of 2014. After a brief stop at Atletico Madrid, he will want to make a lasting impact at Juve.

Pep Guardiola, Bayern Munich – Once upon a time, Guardiola had a magic touch in Europe. Twice in three years he oversaw Champions League triumphs at Barcelona. But under the coveted coach, set to join Manchester City in July, a defensively suspect Bayern have lost two semi-finals heavily in his time there. He will need to plan for Juve carefully, given several key injuries to trusted back-four players.

The National’s Verdict

Juventus’s domestic momentum, coupled with the rash of unavailable Bayern defenders – Jerome Boateng, Holger Badstuber, perhaps Javi Martinez – suggests Juve can sneak it.

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