At least Tim Sherwood can say he did not leave Aston Villa propping up the Premier League table. They actually slipped to 20th place a couple of hours after his sacking when Sunderland beat Newcastle United.
Perhaps Villa, like Sunderland before them, will secure a short-term boost by changing the manager. It would be a surprise if either, with a combined total of two wins in 20 league games this season, is able to cruise to mid-table. Yet there is an underlying issue that unites them: when did Villa become Sunderland?
As Villa find themselves searching for a sixth manager since 2010, as they find themselves in a sixth successive relegation battle, the similarities are uncanny and unwanted.
These are clubs where managers come and go at an alarming rate, often failing to replicate whatever success they enjoyed elsewhere. Some seem strange choices, others obvious answers, but underachievement is the common denominator.
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Each inherits a squad he does not particularly want, courtesy of some of his predecessors’ players, and then compounds the problem with some decidedly unimpressive recruitment. Each feels he is not to blame, citing the club’s fondness for recruiting rookies, often from abroad, instead of the proven Premier League performers he would prefer.
Sherwood left Villa in the rare position of possessing three times as many Jordans – summer buys Amavi, Ayew and Veretout – as league wins this season.
The wholesale importing of Ligue 1 prospects might explain why former Lyon manager Remi Garde appears the frontrunner to succeed Sherwood. But Sunderland, too, have tried looking abroad and adopting a continental approach.
Paolo di Canio, Gus Poyet and Dick Advocaat instead conformed to a familiar pattern, saving them from relegation once only to discover they were unable to steer Sunderland to the upper half of the division, playing progressive football and with a long-term plan.
It felt significant that Swansea City dealt the final blow to Sherwood. Swansea have become the inimitable role models for Villa and Sunderland. They are 12th in the table now, but that represents something of a slump; they never left the upper half of the table last season.
One theory is that it is easier for Swansea, a smaller club, to make quiet progress. They are not confronted by thousands of empty seats or burdened by history, although the chances many players realise that, between them, Villa and Sunderland were champions eight times in the 1890s, are slim, to say the least.
Where Villa differ is that some of their peaks are comparatively recent: European Cup winners in 1982, almost winners of the inaugural Premier League 11 years later and top six finishers three times in as many seasons under Martin O’Neill from 2007-10.
Villa’s decline can be dated to the Northern Irishman’s departure and their attempt to balance the books after overspending. Yet that alone does not explain the mediocrity.
They have pursued policies, of young and experienced players, of looking in the lower leagues for signings and now, seemingly, of trying the foreign markets. Villa Park has acquired the reputation of a graveyard for footballers and managers alike. Time will tell if Sherwood’s career recovers: those of Paul Lambert and Alex McLeish have not yet.
Yet Villa’s greatest flaw is also Sunderland’s. It lies not in strategy, but in judgment, in identifying not just the appropriate players and managers but the right powerbrokers at the club. In Villa’s case, there are questions if head of recruitment Paddy Rile and sporting director Hendrik Almstadt’s influence are really beneficial.
At both, well-meaning American owners, in Randy Lerner and Ellis Short, have invested money and received precious little – in terms of enjoyment, let alone a financial return – as a reward.
Short abandoned any pretence of possessing a philosophy or a long-term plan and appointed Sam Allardyce, the closest thing to a guarantee of survival. It amounted to a pragmatic recognition of failure.
Villa still seem to be experimenting but would be wise to tempt David Moyes back from Spain. The Scot has the resolve to oversee a grind to safety. That is Sunderland’s aim, too. It is a sign of how far Villa have fallen that they now have to try and emulate Sunderland.
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