Manchester City and Manchester United have been here before.
Not quite in the same circumstances, admittedly, but for the second time in five seasons, the final-day drama concentrates on neighbours. United, in particular, will be conscious of their rivals’ scoreline because, once again, the initial advantage lies with City.
The difference is that in 2012 the prize victory brought was greater. Now the focus is on the cost of finishing second in the Manchester mini-league. Four years ago, City became champions for the first time in 44 years, courtesy of their improbable injury-time comeback against QPR. Now their aim is simply to secure a place in the Uefa Champions League and, in the process, condemn United to the Europa League.
City are at Swansea, requiring only a point. United host Bournemouth, looking for a victory and a favour. Go back four years and they beat Sunderland. Yet City’s victory prolonged Alex Ferguson’s managerial career by a year. He was not willing to retire after demotion to the second force in Manchester.
Now the situation has changed. Perhaps, if City secure a result at the Liberty Stadium, they will bring Louis van Gaal’s tenure towards an end. “I shall be here,” the Dutchman said, but it came with a caveat. “That is my opinion, so the board has to decide if it’s like that.”
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Even if Van Gaal wins the FA Cup, it is harder to maintain the pretence progress is being made with a lower league position. As Wayne Rooney said: “It could be a good season for us in terms of qualifying for the Champions League and winning a trophy or it could be worse.”
For United and City alike, there is a pattern of decline. In 2012, theirs was a local rivalry of formidable forces. Both claimed 89 points. United’s was the highest total recorded by England’s runners-up. Both would have been worthy champions. Now there are legitimate questions if either actually deserves a top-four finish. City could end up with 24 points fewer than in 2012, United 26.
City have only won once in 14 matches against the rest of the top eight. United have mustered a mere 46 goals, and no team has finished in the top four with fewer since Everton only struck 45 times in 2004-05. But they were cut-price overachievers, not expensive underachievers, a label that can applied to both Manchester teams in the Premier League.
The past week has summed up a season. Each had opportunities, and each squandered them. City twice led against Arsenal, only to draw, taking their destiny out of their own hands. United led at West Ham, only to lose and put City in pole position again. It sets the scene for an afternoon when the victor may be whichever team whose flaws are less pronounced.
Each has to be better next season. City at least know an era is ending. This is Manuel Pellegrini’s 167th and final game. City have scored 372 goals under the Chilean, 14 in five matches against Swansea. He hopes to bow out with his side finishing as the division’s top scorers for a third successive year.
Sergio Aguero, who scored twice against Swansea on his City debut in 2011 but has not found the net against them since, is trying to retain the Golden Boot. Yet three of the stalwarts of the Pellegrini years are ruled out. There is no Vincent Kompany, no Pablo Zabaleta and no David Silva. Perhaps that sets the scene for Pep Guardiola’s reign. City will surely be remodelled, rebuilt around a younger generation.
United are already undergoing such a project. Anthony Martial, with four in as many games, is spearheading their challenge for a top-four finish. Marcus Rashford’s derby winner at the Etihad Stadium in March could prove one of the season’s most significant goals. Van Gaal may be rewarded for his faith in youth, but matters are out of his hands. As he accepted: “We are dependent on Manchester City.”
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