Unexpected success creates unique problems. It poses questions where ambition and realism meet thereafter, about where fair expectations are calibrated now.
Leicester City confounded every prediction by winning the Premier League last season. Manager Claudio Ranieri has tried to set the same target again, of the 40 points required to avoid relegation, though his team procured 81 last season.
It was the ideal outcome, for supporters and team alike. Now, as they acknowledge, the context has changed. But, attempting to sum up the feelings of a fanbase, the author David Bevan said: “We want the best of both worlds. We don’t want people to expect too much. But if people write us off, fans will say: ‘We won the league by 10 points last season.’”
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That duality, he felt, was apparent last Sunday. "At the Community Shield, there was an element of really wanting to win it and an element of being happy to be there," he explained. Bevan chronicled every game of last season in his book The Unbelievables.
This season contains added fixtures, in the shape of the Champions League, which alter the equation. “You have this weird balance of saying: ‘I wouldn’t mind finishing 15th if we made the semi-finals of the Champions League,’” Bevan said. “But I would be happy with sixth or seventh.”
The BBC Sport broadcaster and Leicester fan John Bennett concurred.
“Pundits and journalists are writing Leicester off again this season but I’m still really positive,” he said. “Retaining the title will probably be out of reach now after the new managerial appointments at Chelsea, Man City and Man United but a top-six finish is more than possible.”
Neither anticipates a repeat of last season. Each believes the drop-off will be acceptable and that, having risen at remarkable pace, Leicester will not regress at the same speed. “Some people have been overreacting and saying: ‘They could get relegated,’” said Bevan. “But I think we have done pretty well to keep the squad together. We have only lost one player.”
That lone departure is midfielder N’Golo Kante – “without doubt the best player I have seen in a Leicester shirt in 26 years following the team,” according to Bennett – and the consensus is that City have bought well. “Ahmed Musa’s pace is frightening,” Bennett said, while Bevan argued: “Musa and Jamie Vardy look similar. Most teams would take two Vardys. It is exciting.”
Neither was despondent when outsiders tipped Leicester for relegation 12 months ago. Bevan felt they would come around 15th while Bennett recalled: “I was thinking finishing 10th would make for a great season.” He only started to believe they would win the title when Crystal Palace were beaten in March. For Bevan the pivotal moment was Riyad Mahrez’s goal at Manchester City in February.
It was a moment to generate belief in a year to produce a feeling anything is possible for a team of everymen who produced the extraordinary.
It is why, while supporters are not expecting too much, nor are they ruling out the chances of the remarkable happening. “If Vardy and Mahrez stay fit it could be another special season,” Bennett said. “The fairytale is not over yet.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
