Decent start for Louis van Gaal’s Manchester United, but clouds gathering on schedule

Despite some less than stellar performances since the start of the season, Manchester United currently occupy fourth place in the Premier League.

But is that position a false one? Or are things not perhaps as bad as a rogue 5-3 defeat at Leicester suggest they might be?

United’s first five opponents this term had an average league position last year of 17th – assigning the three promoted clubs 18th, 19th and 20th in the order they were promoted – a run of games which, statistically, offered the kindest start of Premier League clubs.

Reflecting on United’s position after seven matches, we see that theory has held true: the average points haul of their seven opponents so far is 7.4 – the joint-lowest, along with Crystal Palace. Undoubtedly, United should be fourth, arguably higher. But if their start was straightforward, at least on paper, Arsenal’s has been the opposite.

The current average points total of Arsenal’s first seven opponents is 11 – the highest in the division. Arsenal can take some comfort knowing their next seven opponents have averaged a much more reasonable 9.1 points. If Arsene Wenger can manage the injury crisis currently engulfing the Emirates, you would bet on Arsenal finding their groove ahead of the festive period.

At Old Trafford the storm clouds are gathering. If their campaign welcomed a fortunate start it appears the fixture list is about to fire back.

Games against Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal mean that their next seven opponents have averaged 10.9 points so far – a swing of 3.5 that highlights the upturn in quality of opposition set to face Louis van Gaal’s team. Only Sunderland can expect a potentially more challenging run, with their next seven matches against teams with an average of 11.3 points won.

While Van Gaal can expect a truer test of his credentials over the forthcoming fixtures, some other teams could be about to flourish. The average points haul of West Ham’s next seven opponents is just 7.7 – the lowest of any side. There may also be a glimmer of hope for Newcastle United supporters: Matches against Leicester City, West Bromwich Albion and QPR contribute to their next seven opponents having averaged just eight points at this juncture.

The Premier League table is starting to take shape and Manchester United may have stumbled their way in to the top four, but navigating the gauntlet of forthcoming fixtures and staying in the Champions League places will be one of Van Gaal’s toughest assignments.

Decent start for Louis van Gaal’s Manchester United, but clouds gathering on schedule

Manchester United, perhaps surprisingly, find themselves in fourth as the international break comes to an end - but an unsettling portion of that success can be attributed to a soft set of opponents.