They are jostling for positions as they come around the last bend and into the final straight. Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur are in a five-way battle for two multi-million pound rewards.
Two of them will get the golden tickets that participation in the Uefa Champions League provides, along with Chelsea and Manchester City, who appear to be a lock for the top two spots in the Premier League. The other three may well end up with the consolation prize of a place in the Europa League which, as Tottenham can testify, tends to impede clubs’ chances of finishing in the top four next season.
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Apply a congestion charge on the teams bunched together between 44 and 51 points and it would be profitable. Assume Tottenham will win their game in hand – and as it is against Queens Park Rangers, there is a fair chance they will – and they should be still closer as they enter the last 10 games of the campaign.
There are reasons to tip each to triumph in their mini-league. Arsenal have the pedigree after 18 consecutive top-four finishes. Manchester United have the financial muscle, after spending £152 million (Dh857.2m) last summer.
Liverpool have the momentum, after five victories in six games. Southampton have the enviable defensive record. Tottenham have Harry Kane, who can seemingly do nothing wrong.
Mauricio Pochettino’s current and former clubs are the outsiders. Southampton’s goals have dried up. Injuries have taken a toll on a small squad.
The fact they still sat third three weeks ago demonstrates the extent to which they have overachieved.
Meanwhile, Spurs have been overworked. They play their 46th game of a marathon season tonight. Yet the equation has been simplified, for them and others.
They were fighting on four fronts comparatively recently. Now they can concentrate exclusively on the Premier League. Like Liverpool, they were knocked out of Europe last week.
Arsenal will surely take their leave after their Champions League second leg against Monaco on March 17, while they, Liverpool and United are still in the FA Cup.
However, one of Arsenal and United will exit at the quarter-final stage, with the sides meeting at Old Trafford on Monday.
Each of the contenders has a winnable match tonight. Whoever slips up could find it costly. Liverpool, at home to relegation-threatened Burnley, on paper have the easiest match.
Tottenham take on Swansea City at White Hart Lane, needing to end their longest winless run under Pochettino after going five games without tasting victory.
Arsenal have a happy habit of winning end-of-season games against their inferiors when they need to, and they visit QPR.
United go to Newcastle United with the increasing sense their destiny will be determined away from home. Their home form is excellent – even if their performances certainly are not – but their run-in on the road is filled with potential obstacles at Newcastle, Liverpool, Everton, Chelsea and Crystal Palace.
Their fixture list certainly appears to be the hardest on paper, with Arsenal’s the most accommodating.
United illustrate the differing positions teams with similar points totals find themselves in. Southampton’s season is already a success after their summer exodus.
Tottenham’s has offered promise for the future as Pochettino has built a team around younger players.
Liverpool could have been surveying the wreckage of a dreadful campaign but, while 12th in November when their signings were struggling and their football was sterile, have been rejuvenated in remarkable fashion.
They have defeated Tottenham, Southampton and Manchester City in their last three league games. If they finish fourth, their year will become an unlikely triumph.
If United or Arsenal find themselves fifth or lower at the end of May, theirs would be a disappointment. Arsenal’s record of brinksmanship serves as an insurance policy.
They have won nine of their last 11 games and perhaps possess the most match-winners of any of the contenders.
United budgeted for third. Their unprecedented outlay means that, if a resurgent Liverpool overhaul them, Louis van Gaal will have botched an enviable job. It would be a failure, pure and simple.
Matches that may decide the top four in the Premier League
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur March 15 If Tottenham struggle in the meantime, it could be United's chance to deal a knockout blow to their top-four hopes. But Spurs have won on their last two trips to Old Trafford.
Liverpool v Manchester United March 22 Weeks ago, it seemed United would only need to avoid defeat at Anfield. Now they may need to win, at a ground where Liverpool have beaten Man City and Tottenham, to halt their revival.
Arsenal v Liverpool April 4 Both teams still have to play Chelsea, but apart from that, this is Arsenal's toughest remaining home game and Liverpool's most difficult on the road. The winner will surely finish in the top four.
Manchester United v Arsenal May 16 The penultimate weekend of the season stages the last meeting of the superpowers. Arsenal's recent record at Old Trafford is poor, while United have churned out unconvincing home victories for most of the season.
Stoke City v Liverpool May 24 Steven Gerrard's last league game in a Liverpool shirt, potentially with a place in the Uefa Champions League at stake. United are at Hull City, Arsenal host West Bromwich Albion and Tottenham go to Everton.
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