Nico Rosberg stands just 55 laps from achieving his dream of becoming Formula One world champion at Sunday’s Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
The Mercedes-GP driver will start the race from second and only needs to finish third to seal the title, holding a 12-point lead over teammate Lewis Hamilton. But there are a lot of areas where things can still go wrong for Rosberg in his quest for the world title, and areas that could come into play.
The start
The opening seconds to the race at 5pm will define the afternoon as the drivers get off the line from a standing start to begin proceedings. Holding position from second spot for Rosberg, or even better taking the lead, would set him up well to do what he needs to do. Rosberg will know it is not a given though, and he has lost position off the starting line on six occasions this season.
There is also the risk of being caught up in an incident. In Canada he banged wheels with Hamilton at Turn 1 and fell to 10th, and in Malaysia he was spun around by the Ferrari of Sebastian Vettel and went to the back of the field.
Similar incidents could prove fatal to his title ambitions.
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• Live blog: Stay up-to-date with all the action on and off the track at the Yas Marina Circuit
Teammate’s tactics
Hamilton needs to win to give himself the best chance of claiming a fourth world title, and third in a row, but he will be well aware that Rosberg following him to the finish will not do him any favours.
The Briton needs two cars between him and Rosberg if he wins, and disappearing off down the road, as he did in the past three events in the United States, Mexico and Brazil will not get the job done on its own.
Hamilton was asked on Thursday if he would consider driving slower to ‘back up’ Rosberg into the chasing pack and keep them in range of the German. He dismissed the notion, saying the track layout made it difficult, but no one in the media room, especially Rosberg, bought it.
The tight confines of the final sector of the 5.5 kilometre track, which winds around the Marina and underneath the Yas Viceroy, is almost impossible to pass on and it would very possible to drive slower through there without losing position.
Keeping Rosberg in range of the Red Bull Racing cars and Ferraris could allow them to gain track position with an earlier pit stop.
Hamilton has been warned before by Mercedes for driving too slowly when in front of Rosberg, most recently in Hungary, so the tactic, no matter what the world champion says, should not be ruled out.
Safety car periods
What Rosberg needs is a straightforward afternoon. What he does not need is any variables brought into play, which a full course caution period behind the safety car, could potentially bring if there is a crash or incident on track.
It could throw open the opportunity for alternative pit and tyre strategies, and the last thing Rosberg will want is to worry about what the Red Bulls and Ferraris are doing if they decide to do something different.
Fernando Alonso only needed fourth at the 2010 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to be champion, but a safety car period on Lap 1 allowed a number of midfield drivers to pit early, and they vaulted ahead of the Spaniard when he pitted later in the race. He finished seventh and lost the title.
Overtaking
One of the biggest criticisms that has come Rosberg’s way is his racecraft this season. He has not often needed to overtake in the fastest car in the field, but when he has, it has not always worked out well.
He spun in Canada trying to pass Max Verstappen, was given a penalty in Germany for not giving Verstappen racing room as he made a lunge to overtake, and he was again penalised in Malaysia after making contact with Kimi Raikkonen.
Then of course there have been the exchanges with Hamilton. They took themselves out of the race in Spain with their Lap 1 crash, and it was the German who came off worst when he tried to defend the lead from his teammate on the final lap in Austria, dropping from first to fourth.
He can pass and fight cleanly as his run from the back to third in Malaysia, altercation with Raikkonen apart, showed, but Rosberg fans will have every right to be nervous if their man does need to gain position on track.
Reliability
Unlike Hamilton, Rosberg has yet to have a major mechanical failure in a race in 2016, with the nearest he has come to not finishing was at the British Grand Prix due to a gearbox issue, which ultimately dropped him from second to third.
You have to go back to October 2015 for the last time Rosberg did not finish a race through a technical fault, but given the demands that are put on the engine and gearbox in a race he will not relax until he crosses the line.
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