T20 World Cup Qualifier permutations: How can the UAE qualify?

Ahead of the last day of pool matches on Sunday, the tournament hosts are in third place in Group B

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The top four sides from each of the first-round pools will advance to the next phase of the T20 World Cup Qualifier.

In Group B, Ireland thrashed last-placed Nigeria on Saturday. That meant they moved to eight points, and to the top of the table above Oman on run-rate.

It left the UAE in third place, ahead of the last day of pool matches on Sunday.

The top four teams from the group will advance to the second phase, in Dubai next week, where they will vie for the six qualification places for the World Cup in Australia next year.

The top side in each group advance straight to the semi-finals, and are guaranteed qualification for the World Cup.

The second- and third-ranked sides in the groups go into a semi-final playoff. The winners of those advance to the last four โ€“ and qualify for the World Cup.

The losers go into fifth-place playoff semi-finals, against the sides who finished in fourth-place in the respective pools.

The winners of those two matches also qualify for the World Cup.

Group B: As it stands

1 Ireland 6 4 2 8 1.591

2 Oman 5 4 1 8 1.388

3 UAE 5 3 2 6 0.656

4 Canada 5 3 2 6 0.433

5 Jersey 5 2 3 4 -0.039

6 Hong Kong 5 2 3 4 -0.383

7 Nigeria 5 0 5 0 -4.326

Sunday fixtures

2.10pm, Tolerance Oval โ€“ Hong Kong v Nigeria

2.10pm, Zayed Cricket Stadium โ€“ Jersey v Oman

7.30pm, Zayed Cricket Stadium โ€“ UAE v Canada

How can UAE qualify?

With the other two remaining matches taking place before them, the UAE will know what they need to do by the time they face Canada โ€“ and they might already be through by that point, too.

Their destiny remains in their own hands whatever happens in the other matches, as victory over Canada โ€“ or even a tie โ€“ would guarantee a top-four place.

If Jersey and Hong Kong both win:

Then both those side would reach six points, meaning the sides in third to sixth will all be on equal points at the start of the evening match.

If this does occur, it is possible for UAE to lose and still go through. Their net run-rate is currently superior to Canada โ€“ just โ€“ as well as Jersey, while being vastly better than Hong Kongโ€™s.

A win or tie against Canada would guarantee progress for UAE.

If Jersey win and Hong Kong lose:

Jersey could beat UAE into the top four, if they beat table-toppers Oman and advance their net run-rate beyond UAEโ€™s.

The national team would then miss out if they lost to Canada.

If Hong Kong win and Jersey lose:

Hong Kong would need to thrash Nigeria, which is possible given the last-placed sideโ€™s struggles this week, and hope Canada were comfortable winners over UAE to leapfrog the national team.

UAEโ€™s net run-rate is currently more than one run per over better than Hong Kongโ€™s.

If Jersey and Hong Kong both lose:

UAE are through to the next phase, whatever happens against Canada.

Can UAE top the group and qualify automatically for Australia?

If UAE did beat Canada โ€“ a side who they lost to in 50-over cricket in Namibia last year โ€“ it is theoretically possible for them to top the group.

The two points for the win would take them to eight points โ€“ level with Ireland and Oman, ahead of the Gulf sideโ€™s match against Jersey.

UAE would need a massive win over Canada, though, for there to be a significant enough run-rate swing for them to top the group.