They say one bad day does not make a team bad. But for India, one horrendous day at the office has pushed them close to elimination from their home T20 World Cup.
The defending champions were favourites for the showpiece event, especially given their recent form in T20s and ICC events – the team has suffered just one defeat in the last three tournaments across formats.
India qualified for the Super Eight stage of the continuing T20 World Cup unbeaten, although they were far from convincing against less heralded teams like USA and Netherlands.
Even so, many Indian fans expected the team to raise the bar at the business end of the tournament. On Sunday, however, they put in one of their worst performances in ICC tournaments as they were ripped apart by South Africa in Ahmedabad, losing by a staggering margin of 76 runs.
The Proteas recovered from a shaky start to post 187-7 on a patchy surface at the Narendra Modi Stadium – the venue of India's only defeat in recent ICC events – the 2023 ODI World Cup final loss to Australia.
India’s batting had looked undercooked all tournament and fell apart against a high quality South African attack. Opener Abhishek Sharma failed once again while the rest of the line-up, apart from Shivam Dube (42), struggled to put bat to ball as the Proteas pacers used clever variations throughout the chase to complete a comprehensive win.
The result not only dented India’s confidence but also severely damaged their chances for qualification to the semi-finals.
Are India in danger of getting knocked out in the Super Eight stage?
Largely, yes. In ICC tournaments, the golden rule is that if you can’t achieve victory, try your best to reduce the margin of defeat. That’s because net run rates (NRR) routinely come into play at later stages of the tournament when qualification margins are close.
India’s heavy defeat has decimated their NRR, pushing it to negative 3.8. The result means India have next to no room for mistakes.
The problem for India is that even if they win their next two matches against Zimbabwe and West Indies in their group, they still might not qualify. That’s because if South Africa lose to either Zimbabwe or West Indies, which is a possibility, then there would be a three-way tie between South Africa, India and Zimbabwe/West Indies.
India’s net run rate would almost certainly be below the other two teams – because a NRR of -3.8 is almost insurmountable in T20s – and they would thus fail to progress to the semi-finals. The top two teams from the two Super Eight groups qualify for semi-finals.
The only way India can safely qualify for the semi-finals is if they win both their matches against Zimbabwe and West Indies, while South Africa remain unbeaten. That way, the Proteas will qualify with three wins and India on two wins.
The other option for India is to post record wins against Zimbabwe and West Indies and overcome the deficit of their net run rate. But that is highly unlikely as they have largely struggled with the bat in the tournament.
Remaining fixtures of Super Eight, Group 1
Monday, February 23
Zimbabwe v West Indies (Wankhede, 5.30pm UAE)
Thursday, February 26
West Indies v South Africa (Ahmedabad, 1.30pm)
India v Zimbabwe (Chennai, 5.30pm)
Sunday, March 1
Zimbabwe v South Africa (Delhi, 1.30pm)
India v West Indies (Kolkata, 5.30pm)
