Like the sun, it’s best not to stare directly at the NFL standings. Things are ugly four weeks in. There are 14 teams – 44 per cent of the league! – with losing records, though only the poor Browns are winless. Only three undefeated teams remain, one of which had a bye this week.
The NFC, in particular, has completely been turned on its head. From last year’s play-off teams, only the Vikings, Packers and Seahawks currently have winning records, while title-game participants Carolina and Arizona are free-falling. Of last year’s division winners, only the Vikings are currently back in first, while the other divisions barely resemble last year’s standings.
Let’s look at each of the NFC teams this week to determine how seriously we can take their prospects a quarter of the way through.
• See also: Last week's Power Rankings
1 Denver Broncos (4-0, Last week: No 2)
2 New England Patriots (3-1, LW 1)
3 Minnesota Vikings (4-0, LW 3)
• Tied with Denver for the league’s best record, the Vikings’ model is strikingly similar to the defending champions: Game-managing quarterback, heavy emphasis on the running game and a stout, suffocating defence. They’re for real.
4 Green Bay Packers (2-1, LW 4)
• They have Aaron Rodgers and their only loss was to the Vikings on the road. They’re also for real.
5 Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, LW 5)
• Easily the most surprising team in the league. It'd be easy to say they and their rookie quarterback will regress, and they almost certainly will, but even a regression could keep them afloat in a weak NFC East or Wild Card race. Football Outsiders had them as the NFL's best team in their DVOA rankings last week. The Eagles should stick around for a while.
6 Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, LW 6)
7 Seattle Seahawks (3-1, LW 9)
• Another team loved by DVOA, and that should only improve after a dominant Week 4 win at the Jets. As Christine Michael and the running game get on track, look for the Seahawks to be among the NFC elite all year.
8 Houston Texans (3-1, LW 7)
9 Atlanta Falcons (3-1, LW 16)
Sunday takeaways: Matt Ryan and the scorching Falcons
• The Falcons have made believers out of many after blowing the doors off Carolina. Temper expectations, though, because the next two games are on the road at Denver and Seattle. Their two-game cushion in the NFC South helps, but don’t put the Falcons in the play-offs just yet.
10 Oakland Raiders (3-1, LW 17)
11 Dallas Cowboys (3-1, LW13)
• Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have a chance to go down as the best rookie duo ever (not that too many such examples come to mind). At this rate, Tony Romo should be back midseason, and the Cowboys will have to play him over Prescott for the play-off stretch. With either under centre, last season’s musical-chairs quarterback nightmare is long gone. This season or next, the Cowboys are in good shape.
12 Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, LW 15)
13 Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, LW 8)
14 Baltimore Ravens (3-1, LW 10)
15 Los Angeles Rams (3-1, LW 19)
• Beating the Cardinals in Arizona is nothing to sneeze at, and they’re the only team to beat the Seahawks. With JJ Watt out for the season, defensive tackle Aaron Donald could be the favourite for Defensive Player of the Year, and that side of the ball is set. The fact they’re 3-1 with barely a contribution from Todd Gurley is encouraging, but it’s hard to take a team with Case Keenum and Jeff Fisher seriously. Don’t expect this to last.
16 New York Giants (2-2, LW 12)
• Right in the middle, .500 record, every game a coin flip. The Eli Manning Giants are always either middling or winning random Super Bowls. Neither path would be too surprising in this year’s NFC, so they can’t be counted out.
17 Carolina Panthers (1-3, LW 11)
• How the mighty have fallen. Carolina’s 15-1 2015 season was certainly somewhat fluky, but legitimate enough to earn a Super Bowl trip. This year, the Josh Norman-less secondary is getting destroyed, the offensive line is a wet cardboard box, and Cam Newton can’t stay upright long enough to look like the defending MVP. Their 3-year run as NFC South champions looks to be done.
18 Arizona Cardinals (1-3, LW 14)
• Same goes for the Panthers’ NFC Championship opponents out west. Carson Palmer has been mediocre, but he’s still a better option than Drew Stanton, who might have to play for an injured Palmer this week. Thursday night’s road game with San Francisco looks to be do-or-die.
19 Washington (2-2, LW 22)
• Kirk Cousins has looked better the last two weeks than the first two, and Josh Norman has done his part to keep an otherwise bad defence look at least OK. Apart from a Week 7 trip to Detroit, though, their upcoming schedule is brutal. Washington could fall out of the race sooner than later.
20 Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3, LW 30)
21 Buffalo Bills (2-2, LW 26)
22 New York Jets (1-3, LW 23)
23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3, LW 21)
• Remember when they beat the Falcons in Week 1?
24 New Orleans Saints (1-3, LW 29)
• The Saints were at least competitive in their first two losses, losing by one to Oakland and three to the Giants. The comeback win at San Diego last week was a positive way to go into their Week 5 bye, and it’s tough to count out any team with Drew Brees. All hope isn’t lost for New Orleans.
25 San Diego Chargers (1-3, LW 20)
26 Tennessee Titans (1-3, LW 27)
27 Miami Dolphins (1-3, LW 24)
28 Chicago Bears (1-3, LW 32)
29 Detroit Lions (1-3, LW 25)
30 San Francisco 49ers (1-3, LW 28)
• The opening-week win over the Rams feels like a long time ago, and now it looks like they've lost their best player, NaVorro Bowman. At what point does Colin Kaepernick replace Blaine Gabbert? It might not even matter, though, because the Niners are clearly playing for the future.
31 Indianapolis Colts (1-3, LW 18)
32 Cleveland Browns (0-4, LW 31)
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