Goldman Sachs has just reported one of its strongest and most profitable quarters on record, with more than $4 billion in revenue.
But with the Iran war reshaping the region and global recession risk rising, what are the world's leading investment banks actually thinking?
Anthony Gutman, co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs International and co-head of investment banking, joins Manus Cranny on The Inside Brief from Abu Dhabi, as one of the first senior international bankers to visit the UAE since the Iran conflict began.
In this episode, Mr Gutman shares what he found in 24 hours of back-to-back client meetings with sovereign wealth funds and corporate clients: not conversations about the macro, but requests for deal lists.
Mr Gutman addresses the disconnect between outside perceptions of the UAE and the reality on the ground, the question of long-term reputational impact on the region and why he believes damage will be limited if the conflict is resolved quickly.
He also spoke about the UAE's response to the conflict, saying leadership has done “a phenomenal job dealing with the safety and security of their people”, and that the country remains a place where people want to do business, bring their families and feel secure.
Despite the conflict, Goldman's advisory backlog remains close to record levels, with more than 20 deals of $10 billion or more executed in the first quarter alone.
On the global economy, Mr Gutman explains why Goldman's economists have set out a range of scenarios, base case to extreme, each correlated with how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and why the Q2 earnings season will be the defining moment.
Mr Gutman also speaks about AI and its role in driving the current M&A super cycle, how clients are learning to distinguish signal from noise in a volatile world, and what it actually takes to earn and keep a relationship at the highest levels of global finance.
The Inside Brief with Manus Cranny is available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other major platforms.
