Why Alex Salmond doesn’t really want a yes vote in Scotland

Whatever the result of the Scottish referendum next week, Alex Salmond will emerge a victor, says Michael Simkins

Campaigners for and against Scottish independence campaign ahead of Thursday's referendum. Photo: Jeff J Mitchell / Getty

There’s been something approaching a meltdown among politicians in London in recent days. For months now, the referendum on Scottish independence has been something in the far distance that was nothing to worry about.

Yet suddenly the prospect of independence is approaching like a speeding truck, and at the wheel is Alex Salmond, the ebullient leader of the Scottish National Party. Horn blaring, headlights dazzling, his jowly features etched with his trademark blend of menace and triumph. The message is simple: get out of our way, for we're coming through. From out of nowhere the UK might not only be shunted off the road, but plunged into the abyss.

The realisation that Scotland might actually vote for self-rule has caught Westminster utterly flat-footed. Such has been the quiet confidence of the Better Together campaign that prime minister David Cameron and opposition leader Ed Miliband have only been noticeable by their absence from the campaign trail.

All that has suddenly changed. Perhaps too late, they’ve realised that a “yes” vote is now a very real possibility. A clutch of opinion polls last week suggested that far from lagging behind as they have throughout the campaign, the pro-independence camp is now inching ahead. The consequence has been something approaching blind panic.

So what on earth will happen if Mr Salmond prevails? Speculation on his country’s future has ranged from the profound to the fanciful. Will the Union Jack have to be stripped of its colourful Scottish components? Is Hadrian’s Wall to be rebuilt? And what of Sir Chris Hoy, the UK’s (or is it Scotland’s) most prodigious Olympian athlete? Should he hand back his medals?

The “no” camp, led by former chancellor Alistair Darling, and now buttressed by any politician fit enough to hobble to a microphone, has responded by venturing various economic Doomsday scenarios for the Scots in an attempt to scare the living daylights out of those who would go it alone.

Unsophisticated this response may be, but it’s having the desired effect, with a recent poll indicating the pro-union campaign is inching back in front. As one Scottish citizen put it this week on the BBC: “I’ve already voted ‘Yes’ via my postal vote, but now I’m wondering if I’ve made the wrong decision.” With many voters still undecided, the future of Scotland hangs in the balance.

Yet all may not be as it seems. One seasoned politico I spoke to earlier this week explained his utterly persuasive theory about what was really going on beneath the claims and counter-claims being traded across the airwaves.

“Alex Salmond doesn’t want a ‘yes’ vote”, he suggested.

“What he wants is a ‘no’ vote but with all the political and economic concessions offered by Westminster by way of compensation.

“Look at it from his point of view. No pesky economy to worry about, no worries about the exodus of big business from Edinburgh and Glasgow back to London and best of all, no worries about the demise of North Sea oil supplies, which at current estimates are expected to run out by 2025 – and on which a successful Scottish economy would heavily depend.

“Instead, all the financial and legislative backing of Westminster will still be on tap and his own position as first minister of Scotland will be supremely enhanced.”

Perhaps these are the musings of a gnarled old hack who’s read too many conspiracy theories. But one thing is certain – whatever the result on Thursday, Mr Salmond will be far more powerful than even he could ever have envisaged a few years ago.

And what of Mr Cameron? Here my friend’s diagnosis, which was even more startling.

Mr Cameron, he points out, calamitously offered the referendum when he was not even legally obliged to do so.

If Scotland indeed votes “yes”, there are many who will consider his premiership fatally injured. With George Osborne waiting in the wings and an invigorated Boris Johnson already shouldering his way back into parliament, no wonder the PM’s looking more than a little panic-stricken just now.

“May you live in interesting times”, runs an ancient Chinese curse. If so, the UK can consider itself truly blessed.

Michael Simkins is an actor and writer based in London

On Twitter: @michael_simkins