The X factor in Iran deal is trust

There’s an old proverb that advises persistence when faced with seeming insurmountable challenges: go as far as you can see, and when you get there you’ll see further. It’s worth recalling this wise counsel as negotiations continue in Vienna between Iran and the P5+1 powers on the Iranian nuclear programme. The expectation is that a final deal may not be done by tomorrow’s deadline but at least, in the words of that proverb, the world and Iran have got to a point where they can see further. Further than an impasse, that is.

According to the outline for the proposed deal, which was agreed in early April, Iran will pursue a limited nuclear programme under international supervision. In return, it would be brought into the world economic community, which to Tehran will seem like brilliant springtime – a season of hope – after decades of being frozen out.

There is every sign that Iran and the wider world are readying to capitalise on the economic opportunities that will open up. As the UAE’s Minister of Economy Sultan Al Mansouri told Iran’s ambassador to the UAE when they discussed economic ties, bilateral non-oil trade equalled US$17 billion (Dh 62.44bn) last year. Furthermore, there are 200 flights a week between our two countries. An Emirati-Iranian business council has been agreed and just remains to be set up.

Will everything go to plan? Powerful elements on both sides remain deeply sceptical. Senior US politicians say a deal must allow for spot checks on Iranian facilities and that sanctions should be lifted only after Tehran complies fully. But Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has called for an “immediate” end to sanctions and says inspection of military sites is “out of the question”.

These differences sit at the heart of the divide between Iran and the world: trust. And that’s where that proverb comes in again. You have to get to a point where it is possible to see further. With Iran the future remains unclear. After a deal, will it play by the rules, content with a long-term investment in peace and its economy or will it still hanker after the destabilising dividend of double-dealing and regional belligerence? The time is ripe for Iran to stop meddling and to begin a functional relationship with the region and the world.

Sheer grandeur

The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.

A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.

Race card

1.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

2pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m

2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m

3pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1.950m

3.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m

4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m

4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat

Brief scoreline:

Liverpool 5

Keita 1', Mane 23', 66', Salah 45' 1, 83'

Huddersfield 0

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”