This week marks 48 years of Israeli occupation of the Palestinian West Bank. Since Israel took over the territory in 1967, there have been countless attempts to strike a peace deal between the parties and resolve the conflict that remains at the centre of the Middle East. They have all failed. In the halcyon days of the early 1990s, when Israelis and Palestinians believed that the 1993 Oslo Accords would finally deliver an equitable two-state solution, many observers looked to the economic benefits that peace would have for the region as one of the strongest selling points to keep the parties invested in the process.
A new report by the Rand Corporation adds concrete numbers to the idea of the “peace dividend”. The report finds that Israel could gain as much as $123 billion (Dh452bn) and the Palestinians would enjoy $50 billion in economic gains after 10 years of peace. If peace is not achieved, the report warns, the economic effects would be dramatic, especially for Israel. The country could lose as much as $250 billion in revenue over the next decade. Given the growing momentum of international boycotts of the country, that number could actually turn out to be higher.
While these numbers are indeed impressive, the effect of peace would benefit the region as a whole in a much more profound manner. If Israel were incorporated economically into the wider Middle East, the region could feasibly set up a European Union-style zone that would integrate the extractive and commercial economies of the Gulf with the labour capital of Egypt and the tech prowess of Israel. The combination would quickly become a serious player in global financial markets and provide a crucial counterweight to Iran.
Of course, the economic argument for peace is nothing new. It has bubbled up from various Israeli and Palestinian intellectuals several times over the past two decades. While the Rand report gives the concept real numbers, the occupation of Palestine remains an unavoidable roadblock to current peace efforts. As it stands, Israel derives a variety of benefits from its occupation of Palestinian land. Not only is the West Bank an ideal testing ground for the expansive Israeli military industry but the crime of occupation has so far come with few consequences. While this might be slowly changing, there is still much convincing to be done to get Tel Aviv to reverse its disastrous course and agree to a lasting peace.
