In the few days since world powers gathered in Geneva to confidently declare a cessation in hostilities and a peace plan, the situation on the ground has escalated dramatically — and in very different directions. It started with Russian air strikes pounding positions north of Aleppo, allowing the Syrian regime’s army to cut off the rebel’s supply line from Turkey. Syria’s Kurds then moved east, taking them close to other Syrian Kurds in Kobani.
For Turkey, this expansion by the Kurdish YPG militia was too far, and Turkey has been shelling their positions inside Syria. Elsewhere, Turkey has opened up its Incirlik airbase to Saudi fighter jets, even as Saudi Arabia prepares to hold a massive war games exercise.
The status quo, then, such as it was, has been upended. Many analysts appeared to believe that the international community meeting in Geneva were preparing a ceasefire that would, broadly, back Russia’s position and therefore benefit the Assad regime, with the tacit compliance of the United States.
That is now in some doubt, with important countries in the Middle East clearly signalling that situation, if it came about, would not be acceptable, and would be met with at least some force, if not outright troops on the ground.
Despite Saudi Arabia’s forthcoming show of force with the Northern Thunder exercise, it has been Turkey that has publicly used the most forceful language, calling for an international ground force. Yet, two weeks away from a suggested ceasefire, this is a late gamble by Turkey.
For the best part of a year, throughout 2014, analysts were calling on Turkey to open its Incirlik base to drones or foreign fighter jets. That they have only recently done so shows astonishing complacency on the part of Ankara.
The Syrian civil war has been steadily getting worse, but it was the lack of a proper response from the international community that finally emboldened Russia, late last year, to enter the conflict.
No one can be sure what will happen next. But what is certain is that the complacency of the international community has allowed the Syrian civil war to reach this bitter moment — at vast cost to Syrians, the Middle East and the rest of the world.
