For a while, Myanmar seemed to be a good example of peaceful transition from military rule to democracy. When military commander Thein Sein dissolved the ruling junta in 2011, he dismantled a structure that had stood for 49 years. He committed the country – and himself – to free and fair elections, seeming to have spared his people the bloodiness and chaos that attended the Arab Spring in many countries, where popular uprisings were initially met with brutal resistance.
The world was quick to lavish praise on Myanmar. Sanctions were eased, Asean appointed Myanmar its chair and US president Barack Obama racked up not one, but two visits.
Some of the optimism was well judged. Mr Thein’s pseudo- civilian government freed dissidents, lifted some media restrictions and scheduled a general election for 2015.
But recent events have cast doubt on the direction of democracy in Myanmar. The proposed power-sharing agreement with the opposition has failed to materialise and the constitutional ban on Nobel Peace Prize-winner Aung San Suu Kyi running for president remains in place, while minority rights remain almost non-existent and Buddhist-Muslim are deeply troubling.
The plight of Myanmar's 1.3 million Rohingya Muslims is illustrative, with more than 100,000 having fled the country in the last two years. The Kachin, Karen, Rakhine and other ethnic minorities all face their own difficulties.
This backsliding on the path to democracy is hardly unexpected. History offers few examples of power and influence being ceded without pushback. The international community needs to do more, perhaps by means of a judicious mix of carrot and stick, to help Myanmar fulfil the democratic promise of its transition from military rule. Myanmar’s leaders deserve credit for at least starting this process, but to finish it will require greater resolve and genuine commitment to change.
