ISIL unlikely to gain further ground this year

The past year created a certain dynamics that will probably and substantially have enormous impact in 2015 and beyond, writes HA Hellyer

ISIL’s rise should have been expected, says HA Hellyer. AP Photo via militant website

Much has happened in international relations of which we would never have dreamed a year ago. There have been challenges to the nature of the international order as we have known it in recent history. They are likely to stay with us for a while

They are not all as defiant of the Arab regional order as the Arab uprisings of 2011, the effects of which have yet to be thoroughly appreciated, beyond the regional milestone of the Tunisian transitional road map. In Tunis, there has been a peaceful exchange of power between the former president and leftist human rights activist Moncef Marzouki, and newly elected Caid Sebsi, 88, who was once associated with the old guard.

For years, the European, and by extension western communities, had become accustomed to the notion that nation-states were inviolable. Even beyond their borders, there might be invasions, such as Iraq in 2003, but no one thought the US-led coalition, disastrous though it might have been, would annex Iraq. That sort of wanton territorial grab was unthinkable in the 21st century. At least, until 2014.

Then, the Ukrainian uprising led to the departure of one government, but it was a bitter sweet victory. Russia’s Vladimir Putin gave the order to invade the Ukranian territory of Crimea, and before long, had annexed it in a move that most Crimeans seemed to want. The repercussions of that maleficent invasion and occupation ought to send shock waves through the international system because it showed up its weaknesses.

But how strong is that system, anyway? An international border between two other countries was also ripped up in 2014, this time, by a transnational radical group which is more brutal than any other militant organisation the world has known in this century. ISIL’s rise should have been expected. It was certainly discussed in western corridors of power and some warned against it, but this time last year, no one outside a small core of specialists had any idea what it was. This time next year, it’s still probably going to exist, but 2014 saw not only its rise, but probably also its peak in terms of controlling contiguous territory.

What is perhaps more important to watch for is that in a year from now, ISIL is not likely to take yet more massive parts of Syria and Iraq. Instead, it is likely to continue its status as the foremost recruiter among radical militant organisations anywhere in the world. Its appeal remains, and until the root causes of that appeal are dealt with, ISIL will be able to attract recruits. That said, some may argue that if it doesn’t gain territory and starts to lose it instead, some of ISIL’s appeal may diminish. But diminish does not mean disappear.

This will have an effect far beyond Iraq and Syria. It affects Arab states much further afield and western countries as well. The phenomenon of foreign fighters isn’t likely to be less important this year and its effects on the international system will definitely be felt. States won’t simply continue to discuss travel controls. Instead, the crucial discussion about citizenship, and the removal of it for European foreign fighters, is unfortunately likely to continue and deepen. Europe in 2016 might decide that a commitment to citizenship is the bedrock of the nation-state because of the extent to which it will have been brought into question. It goes without saying that should there ever be an ISIL attack on western targets on their home turf, the repercussions at home and abroad could be substantial.

There might be stronger commitment to rule of law in one other circumstance as well – that festering sore within the modern Arab world, the accession of the state of Palestine to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

A solution to the political quagmire between Palestinians and Israelis looks as far off as it has ever been, but the Palestinians’ accession to the ICC brings in an additional legal element, which could perhaps act as a way to apply legal pressure.

Even so, a year from now, no one should be under any illusion: the West Bank and the Gaza strip will likely still be the occupied Palestinian territories, and the Gazans will still be under siege though one prays that they will not have to suffer as they did in 2014.

Finally, in my home country, the UK, there will be a general election this year. We all expect that the people of the United Kingdom will deliver another hung parliament, cementing a new type of politics that requires a cross-party consensus to govern. No one knows what that will look like, but given the influence Britain continues to exert on Europe and in international forums, the election remains important far beyond the British Isles.

The past year created a certain dynamic that will probably and substantially have enormous impact in 2015 and beyond.

Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC

On Twitter: @hahellyer