Iran’s chance for positive regional engagement

The Islamic Republic needs to prove that it is serious about ensuring stability in the region.

As the July 20 deadline to conclude a deal over Iran’s nuclear programme approaches and the crisis in Iraq continues, there are both positive and negative signs regarding Tehran’s intentions for its future engagement with this region.

The nuclear talks with the P5+1 group (the United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom and France, plus Germany) are still at a stalemate, with US secretary of state John Kerry expected to fly to Vienna this weekend to help push negotiations forward. The sticking point appears to be Iran’s revised position on its required uranium-enrichment capacity. Its negotiators say it needs 190,000 centrifuges for a programme aimed only at electricity generation. American analyst Jofi Joseph, a former White House non-proliferation adviser, has described this number as “ridiculous”.

Whether this constitutes a final position or is an exercise in brinkmanship remains to be seen – but what is clear is that any demands made at the negotiating table in Vienna are linked to Iran's increased diplomacy in other areas. This week has seen Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Iran's deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs, embark on a tour of the UAE, Kuwait and Oman to discuss possible solutions to the impasse in Iraq. This included a meeting with Anwar Gargash, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, where the discussions focused on the threat posed by the Islamic State, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant or ISIL.

Clearly, the Gulf States and Iran have a shared interest in stability in Iraq, which involves resisting the expansion of the Islamic State and the further spread of the extreme ideology espoused by the self-proclaimed ­caliph, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi.

There remain considerable issues of difference with Iran but there is clear value in keeping the channels of communication open and seeking greater cooperation on matters of regional security.

It is a positive sign that Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, has indicated a willingness to assist the US in its support of Iraqi security forces. But a real sign of progress would be a deal on July 20 that permanently allays fears that Iran is seeking to build nuclear-weapons capacity, not just a power grid.