For the third time in as many years, the US government has changed its mind about how to wage digital war against ISIL and other extremist groups. No longer will the State Department focus on “countering violent extremism”, it will do “global engagement” instead. It won’t launch into futile social media arguments centred on the daily news cycle, instead it will “build narratives around thematic campaigns on the misdeeds of our enemy (eg, poor governance, abuse of women, narratives of defectors)”. And it will quietly provide seed funding to a slew of NGOs and media start-ups to join the online battle.
The US government has pursued variations on these themes before. The initial battleplan was to use bloody imagery and spoof ISIL propaganda to undermine the group and disrupt its recruitment drive. When that proved counterproductive, the focus turned to “more factual and testimonial” messages highlighting ISIL’s brutal disregard for basic human principles. To now rebrand the state department’s counterterrorism communications headquarters as Global Engagement Centre (GEC) and appoint Michael D Lumpkin as its new boss changes little. What is more interesting is the statement announcing the mental rejigging under way in Washington. Ned Price, spokesperson for the National Security Council, Barack Obama’s principal forum for national security and foreign policy matters, has said the new GEC will allow the US government to “shift away from direct messaging”. This makes sense, if only because the US government has absolutely no street cred in a scenario that pits it against extremist ideologues with online silver tongues.
Consider ISIL’s prodigious online presence. According to some estimates, it uses 46,000 Twitter accounts, as well as Facebook, WhatsApp, Snapchat and peer-to-peer platforms such as Telegram and Kik to address nearly one billion Muslims around the world.
It disseminates a huge tranche of information every day, according to a study by Quilliam, the counter-extremism think tank in the UK. For one month from mid-July, Quilliam tracked what it called ISIL’s “unique propaganda events” and found that it sent out 38.2 pieces of information a day, “the success of which lies in the twin pillars of quantity and quality”.
This is why calls for a new multi-stakeholder “digital counterinsurgency” that includes governments are growing louder. The concept began to be heavily promoted a couple of months ago by Jared Cohen, director of Google Ideas and a former senior adviser to two US secretaries of state, Condoleezza Rice and Hillary Clinton. Mr Cohen has been lecturing on the proposed digital counterinsurgency to think tanks and universities around America and this week, he brought his idea to London. He calls for a “digital surge” like the military one in Iraq, and says that boosting “the number and scope of initiatives that target each of this enemy’s online tactics” is the only way to marginalise ISIL.
He identifies four types of “digital fighters” – a central command that gives orders and provides resources for content creation; lieutenants who distribute the videos, images and other propaganda; sympathisers who help the lieutenants; and bots, non-human fighters powered by software applications, which automate the distribution of ISIL messaging.
A successful digital surge, Mr Cohen argues, would drive ISIL “into the online equivalent of a remote cave: the so-called Dark Web that is not indexed by mainstream search engines. When its propaganda becomes difficult to find, the organisation will struggle to spread its message or lure new recruits.”
If only digital victory were that certain. But in theory, Mr Cohen should know what he’s talking about. While in government service, he focused on counterterrorism and counter-radicalisation. At Google, he presumably has real-time access if he wants it to the basic daily drills and defensive and offensive manoeuvres of the cyberspace battle. And yet, there is an inherent problem with Mr Cohen’s proposed “recapturing digital territory”.
Even the most watchful government or the most wily extremist group cannot control the internet. And the virtual world has its own slippery rules. His suggestion that “accounts belonging to the digital central command should be identified and suspended, just as we would capture militants in the physical world” doesn’t recognise the shifting nature of internet identities. His recommendation that law enforcement agencies “deter” ISIL’s digital lieutenants and their sympathisers is simply undoable – it is a vast task and impossible in the age of free speech.
Perhaps the real way to fight ISIL’s digital battle may lie in this paradox: wage the war for hearts and minds offline and make the counterargument real.
This is a point admirably made by Emma Nicholson, the British peer who chairs the Amar International Charitable Foundation that supports some of the millions forced from their homes by ISIL in Iraq. She tells a moving story of three Yazidi girls she recently rescued from ISIL and brought to London to testify before the House of Lords. The girls consented to feature in short videos that documented their ordeal and Baroness Nicholson took the films – and the girls swathed in veils – to a British school whose pupils were at risk of being turned by ISIL.
“They were stunned, silent, devastated,” she says, “and then, one by one, they started to get up [and speak out against ISIL]. I think there is a reality that is missing in social media.”
Perhaps real-life stories may be the only way to properly challenge ISIL’s slickly retouched digital make-believe.
Rashmee Roshan Lall is a writer on world affairs
On Twitter: @rashmeerl
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
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Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The view from The National
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5