The tactics of ISIL are changing. Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images
The tactics of ISIL are changing. Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images
The tactics of ISIL are changing. Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images
The tactics of ISIL are changing. Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images

France attack points to change of tack by ISIL


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The images of a white lorry mowing down crowds in the French Riviera city of Nice have triggered a wave of panic in Europe. The attack, which killed 84 people and injured more than 200 on Bastille Day, was the work of an unstable French-Tunisian man who, according to Bernard Cazeneuve, France’s interior minister, had “been recently radicalised”. The horror of the images aside, the Nice terror act, which was claimed by ISIL, points to the rapid transformation of the organisation’s global terror strategy.

Before he ploughed into the Bastille Day crowds, Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel was a 31-year-old man who worked as a heavy-goods vehicle driver in Nice. Neighbours spoke of an unstable, irreligious individual and a womaniser.

But on Saturday, he was hailed by ISIL as a soldier who carried out “the operation in response to calls to target nationals of states that are part of the coalition fighting ISIL”.

Setbacks suffered by ISIL in Iraq and Syria at the hands of a coalition help explain the terror organisation’s mounting campaign of carnage. Increasing military and intelligence pressure has forced the organisation to adapt its strategy in terms of means and targets.

First, ISIL is decentralising its operations by combining different tools – from highly-skilled cells to lone wolves who execute its terror operations.

In March, coordinated attacks in Brussels claimed by ISIL resulted in more than 30 deaths and 200 injured. The Brussels bombings came four months after the infamous November attack in Paris that resulted in the deaths of 130 people. Belgian and French intelligence services uncovered a wide network of cells linked to one another, through its members criminal past or their role in the Syrian conflict, where some appear to have fought.

Today in France there are more than 900 people who have waged jihad in Syria. Some of these soldiers have gone back to Europe after being indoctrinated, acquiring the necessary military skills, and more importantly developing useful connections to an underground terror network.

ISIL reliance on lone wolves is another means to project power by relying on people inspired by jihadi ideologies but without necessarily a direct connection to a specific group.

The Nice attack, which appears to fall within the latter category, also highlights another important point: ISIL is willing to let go, if needed, of its centralised caliphate and move to a global cult-like movement, giving religious justification to acts of violence of disgruntled and unstable people.

The terror organisation has recently warned western countries that no security measures would spare them “from the blows of the mujahideen”, lone wolf operations being extremely difficult to detect.

Second, ISIL is diversifying its targets and adapting its strategy. As an example, countries with decentralised intelligence services or large numbers of radicalised youth may be more vulnerable to organised and highly-skilled operations. Places with large jihadi populations include Tunisia, (6,500 fighters), Europe (6,000), Russia (3,000) and Saudi Arabia (3,000).

Other countries that could be prone to a similar type of threat are Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon, due to their proximity to Syria and Iraq, and the existence within their borders of large groups of marginalised refugees.

In June, ISIL claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed seven members of the Jordanian security forces and wounded 13 others on at a military checkpoint in Rukban, on the country’s border crossing with Syria.

The Jordan bombing was followed the next day by eight suicide bombings targeting the Lebanese village of Qaa, resulting in five deaths. Nearly concomitantly, three terrorists took Istanbul airport by storm, killing 44 people.

Evidently, Iraq will remain the focus of the organisation’s terror efforts.

Early this month, Baghdad was struck by what was considered as the deadliest attack in years, targeting the predominantly Shiite neighbourhood of Karrada, where hundreds were killed.

As its territory shrinks, ISIL is expected to resort to larger acts of violence, specifically aimed at fuelling religious tensions and sectarian backlashes that can allow it to preserve some level of popular support within its community in Iraq.

Conversely, countries such as the US, with small jihadi populations and where Muslim are better integrated, are more susceptible to lone wolf operations. Only 250 US nationals have gone to fight with radical organisations in Iraq and Syria.

This, however, does not shield such countries from terror operations abroad. In Saudi Arabia this month, a man detonated his suicide vest after he was intercepted by security guards near a hospital in Jeddah, located on the corner of the heavily fortified US consulate.

ISIL’s motto has been to “remain and expand”. As it faces increasing losses in Iraq and Syria, it will try compensating for those defeats with easy terror achievements.

The organisation’s perpetuation of a deadly cycle of violence will allow it for the short period to gain recruits and score small but spectacular victories on the international scene.

Mona Alami is a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Centre for the Middle East

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Her most famous song

Aghadan Alqak (Would I Ever Find You Again)?

Would I ever find you again
You, the heaven of my love, my yearning and madness;
You, the kiss to my soul, my cheer and
sadness?
Would your lights ever break the night of my eyes again?
Would I ever find you again?
This world is volume and you're the notion,
This world is night and you're the lifetime,
This world is eyes and you're the vision,
This world is sky and you're the moon time,
Have mercy on the heart that belongs to you.

Lyrics: Al Hadi Adam; Composer: Mohammed Abdel Wahab

Quick pearls of wisdom

Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”

Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.” 

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Key figures in the life of the fort

Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.

Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.

Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.

Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.

Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.

Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home. 

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows

Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.

Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.

The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.

After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.

The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.

The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.

But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.

It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.

Ukraine

Capital: Kiev

Population: 44.13 million

Armed conflict in Donbass

Russia-backed fighters control territory

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Asia Cup 2018 final

Who: India v Bangladesh

When: Friday, 3.30pm, Dubai International Stadium

Watch: Live on OSN Cricket HD

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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups

Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ain Dubai in numbers

126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure

1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch

16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.

9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.

5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place

192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.