Over the past several months, Turkey has pivoted its foreign policy objectives. Recognising that its strategy of “no problems with neighbours” has transformed into nothing but problems with neighbours, Ankara has mended critical relationships such as the one with Russia. Yesterday, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan headed to St Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin at a critical time in the country’s history.
After Turkey shot down a Russian jet over Syria for allegedly breaching Turkish air space last year, the Turkish-Russian relationship was frozen. In June, Mr Erdogan personally apologised to Mr Putin and since then the relationship has largely gone back on track despite clear differences over the Syrian civil war. In the run up to the one-day visit, Mr Erdogan has made it clear that he feels that the United States and Europe have let his country down.
Following the failed coup attempt, which Turkey has blamed on the self-exiled cleric Fetullah Gulen, the Turkish media have ramped up accusations that the United States had a role in the attempt to overthrown the legitimate government. State run and pro-Erdogan newspapers have accused the US of protecting Mr Gulen from extradition to Turkey.
The Turkish army, which is the second largest fighting force in Nato, has been in disarray since members of the armed forces launched the failed coup. Mr Erdogan has purged thousands of military personnel along with police and other members of the civil service. This comes at a time of great regional instability and the decisions currently being made will have major ramifications.
With Mr Erdogan’s trip to St Petersburg, it appears that Ankara is pivoting towards Moscow just as the country’s internal pillars are falling apart. Given the rise of anti-American rhetoric in Turkey, such a pivot could have unforeseen and potentially destabilising consequences for the continued war against ISIL and Nato cohesion. Turkey’s realisation that it needs friends and not enemies is overdue but it should not come at the expense of its critical role in Nato and partnership with the US.
