Erdogan’s change of mind over ISIL will alter the course of Syrian war

What the Arabic-language media is saying about ­Turkey and ISIL. Translated by Abdelhafid Ezzouitni

Turkey under president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is about to face one of the most serious challenges in its modern history after the government submitted on Tuesday a motion seeking a mandate to join the US-led coalition battling the ISIL group in Iraq and Syria, wrote Abdel Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of the London-based news website Rai Al Youm.

Mr Erdogan said on Sunday that his country could not stay out of the fight against ISIL, bringing to an end the indecision that had marked his stance over recent months.

So what led Turkey to shift its position from absolute caution to full participation and what reward will Mr Erdogan get in return for him joining the anti-ISIL fight?

Turkish reporters have revealed that Mr Erdogan received a crucial phone call from US president Barack Obama in which both leaders reportedly agreed on the outlines of intervention in Syria.

The Turkish plan leaked to the press involves three points. The first one is establishing a no-fly zone on the Syrian side in cooperation with the coalition air powers, but keeping the Syrian air force away.

The second would be to launch a military attack, using both ground troops and air strikes, to control ISIL-held areas in Al Riqqa, Deir Ezzor and the Kurdish region along the Turkish-Syrian border.

The last aim would be to achieve a permanent settlement of the conflict in Syria by forming a new government and empowering the Syrian opposition. This would involve reorganising the opposition and training new military units in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to become the nucleus of a new Syrian army.

Mr Erdogan said that all his demands were approved by the US administration, with the toppling of the Al Assad regime believed to be the main reward he will get for taking part in the US-led military action in Syria and Iraq.

This suggests that his previous hesitance to join the fight was in order to get the best deal possible for Turkey. Crucially, it also came after Turkey convinced ISIL to release all of the 49 Turkish hostages it was holding after the extremist group’s leader, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, was deluded into thinking that Ankara would not join the US-led coalition.

How ISIL will respond to the “deception” remains to be seen, the writer said. It might seek to exact a cruel revenge, as it has previously threatened to hit the booming tourism industry in Turkey that contributes upwards of $30 billion (Dh110bn) to the country’s GDP.

Huda Al Husseini wrote in the London-based Asharq Al Awsat that, despite Mr Erdogan’s statement that Ankara was willing to be part in the US-led coalition against ISIL, Turkey seems to be benefiting from ISIL’s fight against the Kurds. This was evidenced by the siege of the Kurdish town of Kobani.

As it stands, Mr Erdogan wants Syrian president Bashar Al Assad defeated but at the same time wants Syria’s and Turkey’s Kurds weakened.

The writer noted that Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, was on the ground alongside the Kurds leading the fight to liberate the Iraqi city of Amerli. Concurrently, American aircraft were launching strikes on ISIL targets.

He also noted that Turkey had sealed the deal with ISIL to have the Turkish captives released before Mr Erdogan said Ankara was willing to join the US-led coalition. Yet according to an American official, the US did not know the size of cooperation expected from Turkey.

The writer went on to say that despite Turkey’s role in the US-led coalition, ambiguity continues to engulf the mission against ISIL militants in Iraq and Syria, and many questions remain unanswered.

Where is the joint command centre located? Do western forces want to completely destroy ISIL or merely destroy the weapons seized by the group from the Iraqi army? And if TV cameras can film large numbers of ISIL members, how come advanced weaponry cannot spot and strike them? Will the West be able to dismantle ISIL’s “network of death” by air strikes alone?

As far as Syria is concerned, a weakened ISIL is going to create a void that will serve the best interests of Mr Al Assad’s government, the writer said. The problem in Syria is that there is a lack of a significant force, bar regime troops, that can confront ISIL and other extremist groups.

This could be exactly what had dissuaded the US from intervening in the Syrian war, until the recent ISIL victories and its cruel atrocities, the writer said.

Translated by Abdelhafid Ezzouitni