H G Wells's War of the Worlds, a staple of 19th-century science fiction, depicts a battle between space aliens and humanity so one-sided it is as though it were being fought between "men and ants". More than a century later, military technology has progressed so far that such asymmetry on the battlefield need not feature aliens.
Unmanned military drones are a leading example. The US pioneered the use of these weapons along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where its fleet of drones has killed thousands of people in the past two decades, many of them civilians, without risking the lives of American soldiers. As the technology has become more widespread, parts of the Middle East are becoming the new frontiers in drone warfare, and the desire to avoid asymmetry has resulted in an arms race. Non-state actors, including terrorist groups, have joined the fray.
Last Saturday, Saudi Arabia intercepted 17 Houthi drones launched from Yemen. On Monday, Israel announced it had successfully tested a high-power laser defence system that can shoot down drones dispatched by militants in Lebanon or Gaza. Drones have also featured on battlefields in Syria, Libya and the Caucasus.
Defence analysts have recently begun to emphasise the need for a global dialogue around not only the security consequences of drone warfare, but the geopolitical and moral implications, too. The subject was raised in earnest at the most recent meeting of Nato, the trans-Atlantic military alliance. Germany, historically opposed to over-militarisation since the end of the Second World War, has advocated a conservative approach. Turkey, on the other hand, has an active drone programme that recently demonstrated its huge tactical advantage in the latest Nagorno-Karabakh war, in which Azerbaijan deployed Turkish-made drones against Armenian forces to a game-changing effect.
Even non-state actors have managed to create highly effective indigenous drone industries, often with the help of governments. The Houthi rebels' drone programme is thought to be supported by Iran, and sends explosive salvoes into Saudi Arabia on a regular basis. The most damaging came in September 2019, when drone attacks on the kingdom temporarily shut down five per cent of global oil supply. Subsequent investigations showed Iranian involvement, highlighting the ability of hostile states to use "plausible deniability" attacks to shift responsibility away from themselves and muddy the waters of accountability in conflict.
Progress in military technology is inevitable, and must always be accompanied by debate and binding standards to prevent, at least, the very worst of its consequences. The 20 million deaths caused by the First World War are, in large part, thought to have been possible due to huge advances in mechanised warfare during the years prior to the conflict. Joseph Rotblat, a key scientist in the Manhattan Project, the US programme that invented the atomic bomb, famously regretted his participation and years later put his name to a declaration against the technology that "threatened the continued existence of mankind".
Drones are not atomic bombs. But they can be devastating in their own way. As their rise continues, future writers will not need to rely on comparisons to men and ants in order to illustrate their havoc. Battles between machines and men will provide imagery formidable enough.
