There is little doubt that the devastating floods and landslides that have torn through Nepal and Tibet, leaving more than 1,000 people dead with many thousands more missing, are not an aberration. The rising frequency of such extreme weather events should make this tragedy a wake-up call for all countries to urgently invest in future proofing against climate risks – beginning with building effective early warning systems.
The international community has rightly come to Nepal’s aid over the past week, providing tunnel-rescue teams, forensic specialists, drones and other equipment. Countries and international organisations have mobilised more than $42 million in rescue support, with the UAE delivering 45 tonnes of essential supplies under a $10 million humanitarian aid package.
But even as countries should help one another in moments of crisis, they should ask themselves how prepared they are for when disaster strikes in their own backyard. Governments cannot prevent every flood, landslide, drought, typhoon or heatwave, but the severity of their consequences can certainly be reduced with adequate preparation.
The world today has a much better understanding of the long-term impact of climate change. More than 170 countries have even put in place climate adaptation strategies. Yet national responses to recent extreme weather events in most parts of the globe suggest very few have adequately prepared their societies for the consequences already being felt.
One major challenge, particularly in the developing world, is lack of funds. The UN Environment Programme estimates that emerging countries need more than $300 billion a year by 2035 to adapt adequately – a target that, sadly, has yet to be achieved.
Fortunately, early warning systems stand out as the most cost-effective defensive lifeline available, and rest on four pillars: risk knowledge drawn from past hazards and community vulnerabilities; real-time monitoring and forecasting through satellites, radars and sensors; rapid communication through mobile phones, sirens and radio; and preparedness training for communities and emergency services.
According to the UN, effective and timely alerts are linked to six times fewer disaster-related deaths. Giving communities just 24 hours of notice can reduce total damage by 30 per cent. The benefits of investing in these systems are obvious.
Over the longer horizon, future proofing must involve constructing roads, bridges, hospitals and power networks for the climate that is coming. While building critical infrastructure is always an expensive pursuit, the Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance estimates that investing $1 in pre-disaster resilient infrastructure saves up to $4 to $13 in future recovery and economic costs.
Adaptation and mitigation do not mean limiting efforts to cut emissions. The more the world limits warming, the less severe the risks it will need to adapt to. But cutting emissions will always be a long-term goal, by which time some degree of extreme weather-related disruption will have occurred.
The sensible response, then, is preparing for that proverbial rainy day.
