In a little more than a week, five vessels of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company have been attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This brings to nearly two dozen the number of such ships that have been in the firing line of Iranian forces since February 28. One crew member has been killed and more than 20 injured in the past few months.
While Adnoc continues to operate robustly, business continuity should not be mistaken for ‘business as usual’. No entity, and certainly no business servicing a global clientele, should have to endure such violence but Tehran’s strikes are more than an issue for one energy company or a single nation. Hormuz is one of the world’s most important economic arteries, and firing on vessels passing through it threatens the movement of energy, goods and people far beyond the Gulf.
The global reality of this high-seas intimidation should make attacks on UAE-flagged ships a rallying moment for all those who care about the world’s economy and international law of the seas. There are vessels carrying the flags of nations from five continents that have faced Iranian threats over the past months. The litany of strikes on shipping is a test of whether countries can turn declarations of solidarity into a coherent regional position.
In a statement on Saturday, Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE President, made clear that the UAE will defend its rights in the Strait of Hormuz, stressing the need for Gulf countries to act together.
No one wants another layer of militarisation in the Gulf nor a security architecture that is defined by confrontation with a difficult neighbour. The route that Iran’s leaders have been taking, however, seems focused on escalation. The Bab Al Mandab strait being threatened by the Iranian-backed Houthis is another example of that troubling approach.
Gulf countries are committed to diplomacy - but also cannot accept continued attacks.
The Strait of Hormuz is too important to be held hostage in this way. Its waters carry a significant share of the world’s energy supplies and connect Gulf economies to global markets. Iran’s attacks therefore demand a proportionate response. That response may be shaped by current events and the pressing need for a way forward.
The end of the 60-day deadline set by June’s US-Iran framework is imminent, bringing into sharp relief the question of what comes next. The priority must be a clear roadmap for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with defined steps, timelines and credible guarantees that can withstand the inevitable pressures of the wider dispute.
This must provide more than a pause in hostilities and establish a credible mechanism for restoring safe passage. Clarity is key; Gulf countries, and the world, need to know not only that the strait will reopen, but under what conditions, by when and how its security will be guaranteed.
None of this will be easy, but the more countries that act in tandem make the realisation of a lasting deal more likely. The alternative – a debilitating stasis that is neither war nor peace – serves nobody’s interests.
