If war can be thought of as a zero-sum game with clear winners and losers, then diplomacy is its more nuanced counterpart. Monday’s reports that the US has lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports for 60 days reflect such ambiguity. This is because what could be presented by Tehran as a hard-won concession can easily be regarded as fresh leverage being exerted by the US instead.
There can be little doubt that the reported $12 billion in oil sanctions relief will give the Iranian government some much-needed breathing room. Because of Tehran’s problematic nuclear programme and meddling in the Middle East and further afield, the country’s years-long isolation has left its economy in the doldrums. Unfortunately, it is the Iranian people who have disproportionally felt the consequences of their leaders’ attempts to interfere in neighbouring countries by funding proxies and exporting their ideology.
Therefore, it would be in the Iranian government’s interests to now set aside its past evasiveness and use these funds to reintegrate economically and rebuild some form of domestic legitimacy. The country’s long-term stability depends on internal reconciliation as much as external diplomacy. However, the real issue here is not whether Iran gets sanctions relief or receives frozen assets – it is to what purpose this financial windfall is put.
Diplomatic progress, no matter how incremental, should not come at the expense of regional security concerns. Sanctions relief and the disbursement of frozen assets should be tied to credible guarantees of maritime stability in the Arabian Gulf. The abuse of funds to remilitarise or prop up violent groups abroad would be unacceptable. Given Iran’s opaque institutions and history of sanctions evasion, the country’s neighbours can be forgiven for having many reservations about this latest development.
Nevertheless, sanctions relief is not a one-way street. Such measures are conditional, reversible and ultimately enforceable. Yes, Tehran may be in receipt of new income, but economic leverage of this kind comes with many caveats. This should compel the Iranian state to change its behaviour, increase transparency and embrace de-escalation.
Washington’s decision to issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude, petroleum products and derivatives, as well as all associated services, including banking transactions, insurance and transport is a far cry from America’s long-running campaign of “maximum pressure” against Tehran. That a ceasefire and diplomacy have delivered some economic relief for the Iranian government is a development that Tehran should use to benefit its long-suffering people. Sanctions relief is an opportunity that Iran’s leaders should be mindful not to squander.
