The last time US President Donald Trump met Chinese President Xi Jinping, the American leader described their encounter as “amazing”, adding that on a scale from one to 10, he would score it a 12.
There was good reason for Mr Trump’s ebullience. The world’s two biggest economies had been locked in an economic war sparked by the US President’s use of sweeping trade tariffs. Last October’s bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in South Korea ended with a truce more than a deal – but it revealed what such face-to-face meetings could achieve.
Today, China will host a sitting US leader for the first time in nine years. Mr Trump’s visit was originally designed to reset trade ties, but it is now likely to be equally focused on the Iran war. This is a costly conflict that is proving resistant to diplomatic solutions; Mr Trump said on Monday that the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support” after he dismissed Tehran’s response to a US peace proposal.
It is against the backdrop of this impasse that Mr Trump arrives in China – one of the few countries equipped to play a decisive role in moving the situation forward. Beijing has agency as a leading global power, the world’s second-largest economy, and it is Iran’s biggest energy customer. At the same time, China has significant investments in the Gulf and strong relationships with its leaders. It also has vital diplomatic experience in the region, having previously helped broker the Saudi-Iran rapprochement of 2023.
Beijing has also proved willing to bring its influence to bear on ending the Iran war. In March it jointly proposed a five-point plan with Pakistan to end hostilities, establish a ceasefire, restore maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and protect civilian sites. Mr Trump’s visit is an opportunity to inject new impetus into a stagnant diplomatic track.
However, it is wise to be realistic. China cannot force a deal, nor can it make an unpredictable US administration do business with an intransigent and opaque Iranian leadership. “China might hold a key, but I don’t think China has the ability to dictate what Iran can or cannot do,” Yun Sun, a China expert at the Stimson Centre think tank, told The National. “China can assist. But there’s no guarantee.”
There is little doubt, however, that the war is problematic for an economy as dynamic as China’s, as it has been for the rest of the world. With higher energy costs and security threats driving up the price of shipping, this strategically important visit by Mr Trump comes at a crucial moment. The work of building a lasting peace, one that not only ends the war but ensures that Iran cannot intimidate or coerce its neighbours, needs the support of responsible diplomatic powers. China’s contribution to that work is vital.
