Disappointment. This was the first reaction of many across the Middle East and the wider world today to the news from Islamabad that talks between the US and Iran had ended without agreement. Given the death and destruction that has accompanied six weeks of war in the region, it is an understandable response.
And yet, there are reasons not to give in to despair. A fragile ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran still holds, despite some sporadic breaches. As experienced negotiators will attest, it is rare to come to a comprehensive agreement in a first round of talks. A broad view of the meeting’s context is instructive.
Washington has gone from claiming “a whole civilization will die tonight” to having its first face-to-face discussions with Iranian officials since US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the JCPOA nuclear talks with Tehran in 2018. Iran reportedly brought 70 experts and officials to Islamabad, and the US team was led by Vice President JD Vance – both signs of serious intent.
Indeed, the lack of leaks and off-the-record briefings from the Serena Hotel reflected the opacity of the talks which, although frustrating for journalists and observers, revealed a discipline and seriousness to the negotiations. In addition, Pakistan played a consequential and competent role as facilitator. Amid hopes that the two sides will reconvene before the ceasefire expires, Islamabad will not want its high-profile diplomacy to be seen to fail.
However, it is important to avoid false hope. This is still a dangerous and volatile situation. The failure of this engagement exacerbates the risk of further war, more shocks to the global energy system and uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. All these issues demand a peaceful resolution; there are no legitimate winners from a return to armed conflict.
Millions in the Middle East will be asking: what happens next? Predictions are unhelpful but there are several things that certainly should happen. Firstly, extreme caution is needed going forward. There are reports of more US naval activity regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which Mr Trump claims his military is currently “clearing out” of mines. Although it is tempting for countries to respond to a diplomatic logjam with shows of strength, this desire for deterrence carries the risk of miscalculation, the consequences of which could be severe.
Secondly, Lebanon must be given a chance to breathe. Direct talks between the Lebanese government and Israel are scheduled in the US this week; Washington should use its considerable influence to support de-escalation. As a minimum, Israel should end its unjustifiable bombing campaign. For its part, Hezbollah should step back and stop trying to strongarm the Lebanese government or derail the talks. It should work according to Lebanon’s interests, not Iran’s. The success or otherwise of this process has a direct bearing on the US-Iran process.
Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was correct when he said on Sunday that “diplomacy never ends”. It is true that, in some ways, negotiating is more difficult to prosecute than war – it is frequently slow, complex, frustrating and demanding. But when examined in contrast to the mayhem of war and the human toll it takes, there is no better way.
