In May 2003, two months after the US-led invasion of Iraq, George W Bush mounted a podium on the USS Lincoln off the coast of California. In a televised address, the US president said American forces had ended combat operations and that, although there was difficult work ahead, “in the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed”. Behind Mr Bush was a banner that read “Mission Accomplished”. US forces were to stay in Iraq for another eight years in direct combat operations and years after that in various military undertakings.
Venezuela may be far away from the Middle East but the painful lesson of Iraq, as well as Libya in 2011, should be instructive. Removing a leader or toppling a regime is one thing – governing an entire nation is quite another. And yet, this is what the US President says will happen. In his speech following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, Donald Trump said America would “run” the oil-rich country "until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition".
There was scant detail about how Mr Trump plans to administer a country of nearly 30 million people who have just had their head of state seized by foreign troops and spirited away to face an uncertain legal process.
There is little doubt that the people of Venezuela have been suffering for some years. Gang warfare, crime, soaring inflation and lack of opportunity, despite the country’s oil wealth, have all taken their toll.
But in abducting Mr Maduro amid airstrikes on the capital, the US gives some credence to Chavista rhetoric about “American imperialism”. The world relies on dialogue, de-escalation as well as respect for sovereignty and international law – especially when the future of millions of people is at stake. Further marginalisation of international bodies such as the UN bodes ill for the future. This is especially true given that Mr Trump indicated that neighbouring Colombia could be next.
It may be the case that the Pandora’s box that has been opened cannot be closed. If so, the international community will have to work hard to prove the relevance of multilateral co-operation. Meanwhile, where Washington goes next from here is hard to predict. A major part of Mr Trump’s re-election campaign was to extract America from costly overseas wars and tangled political conflicts. He has, however, used military strikes from Iran to Nigeria. With the weekend’s attack on Venezuela, Mr Trump has not just inserted his administration into another war, he has added to a growing and troubling sense of global disorder.
