As departing interviews go, Lebanese president Michel Aoun’s remarks on the eve of his resignation in October 2022 were prescient. He told the Reuters news agency that without a replacement or formal Cabinet lined up, the country faced “constitutional chaos”.
Since then, Lebanon has indeed suffered from "constitutional chaos", witnessing a difficult era characterised by political inertia. A caretaker administration was left to tackle the fallout out from the country’s catastrophic financial collapse, the aftermath of the 2020 Beirut port explosion and last year’s Israeli invasion and occupation. Despite its efforts, few answers to the nation’s myriad crises were forthcoming. Therefore, today’s news that its elected representatives have finally got together to choose a new head of state – despite a disruptive session with harsh exchanges between MPs - comes as a relief.
Electing former army chief Joseph Aoun as president, ending two years and four months of a presidential vacuum is an important moment.
Lebanon, a country that has endured much outside interference, has the chance to begin national rebuilding. Syria has broken with the Assad dynasty that invaded and occupied Lebanon in 1976 before being ousted by the Cedar Revolution of 2005. Iran is another foreign power that has repeatedly meddled in Lebanese affairs but its main vehicle for this manipulation – Hezbollah – has suffered a string of serious setbacks in recent months. Mr Aoun, no relation to his predecessor, takes power at an opportune moment.
Indeed, there are several other reasons for cautious optimism. Mr Aoun has the advantage of coming from an institution that best represents Lebanese sovereignty and cross-community allegiance – the Lebanese Armed Forces. He will also enjoy the goodwill for foreign donors who are ready to finance much-need reconstruction. In addition, international markets have responded positively to the idea of an Aoun presidency; on Wednesday the value of Lebanon's government Eurobonds soared as investors anticipated MPs choosing Mr Aoun. Hezbollah, Mr Aoun’s biggest domestic challenge, is much chastened after dragging its country to war and losing a great deal of its senior leadership to Israeli attacks. Should the movement wish to keep its remaining influence, it would make strategic sense for it to work co-operatively with an Aoun-led administration.
A quick look at Mr Aoun’s in-tray reveals many challenges. Firstly, there is the business of appointing a new prime minister as well as balanced and functional Cabinet – no easy task in a country where sectarianism is hardwired into its constitutional makeup. As a shaky truce with Israel continues to hold and Israeli units reportedly pull back from occupied Lebanese territory, stabilising the country’s borders, and re-establishing the state’s monopoly on force are also critical to-do items. Syria’s future remains uncertain and as The National has reported, the flow of illegal arms across the border into Lebanon poses a grave security risk. There is also the mammoth task of building accommodation, healthcare and schooling facilities for the thousands of Lebanese displaced by Israeli bombardments.
No one should expect miracles; as outlined above, Lebanon’s challenges are many and varied. But now that the political inertia plaguing Lebanon is over, swift and decisive steps to shore up its sovereignty, provide for people left homeless by war or impoverished by financial collapse, could mean finding a path out of the “constitutional chaos” the previous occupant of Baabda Palace predicted more than two years ago.
