Why Donald Trump's return could signal a Middle East reset

A large billboard of US President-elect Donald Trump in Jerusalem on Wednesday. As Israeli forces strike targets from Rafah to Beirut, Damascus to Tehran, Mr Trump will be confronted by an immediate foreign policy crisis. EPAShow less

Given President-elect Donald Trump’s unorthodox governing style, it would be something of a reach to describe him as a known quantity. From the perspective of the Middle East however, the victorious Republican Party leader is not an unfamiliar figure.

His track record of promoting engagement and brokering significant new agreements is evidenced most clearly in the 2020 Abraham Accords. Importantly, he has also stated his desire to end swiftly the wars raging in Gaza and Lebanon. Indeed, US President Joe Biden’s fatal mishandling of the chain of events that began with the October 7 attacks on Israel last year appears to have contributed to the Democrats’ resounding defeat.

But given the immense death and destruction that is unfolding as Israeli forces strike targets from Rafah to Beirut, Damascus to Tehran, Mr Trump will be confronted by an immediate foreign policy crisis that should command his attention. Mr Biden still has time to reverse his mistakes; he will remain US Commander in Chief until January and – as last week’s Weekend Essay in The National argued – there is much he can do to at least limit the damage of the past year, and potentially prepare the ground for more durable solutions in the Middle East.

Donald Trump declares victory and promises to fix America

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No doubt, Mr Trump has been given a clear mandate – with a decisive win not only for the White House but in the Senate too. Elections can be divisive; closely fought ones between candidates with irreconcilable positions, even more so. After months of campaigning often defined by invective and hyperbole, Mr Trump’s promise to cheering Republican supporters in Florida yesterday that his administration-in-waiting would "help our country heal" is an important step in lowering the political temperature. With his Republican Party having taken control of the Senate, still holding a narrow majority in the House of Representatives and enjoying the support of a conservative-majority Supreme Court, Mr Trump may feel secure enough to govern with more magnanimity than his opponents might expect.

Gallons of ink will be spilled in getting to the bottom of this historic result but a key takeaway from this result is that the Republican Party is a machine now wholly defined by Mr Trump – it is a political brand like few others. On the other hand, the Democrats remain as much a coalition as a united party; Vice President Kamala Harris’s failure to chart a course away from unbroken support for Israel, despite the carnage in Gaza and Lebanon, is one of the rocks upon which this coalition floundered.

Joe Biden’s fatal mishandling of events since the October 7 attacks on Israel appears to have contributed to the Democrats’ defeat

Although the Middle East played an import part in this election – many Arab and Muslim-American voters appear to have deserted the Democrats – for most Americans, it was the struggles of day-to-day life that decided their vote. In a survey of more than 3,000 adults, including 1,340 swing state voters commissioned by The National before the election, the cost of living and the economy were the top issues for Trump and Harris supporters; 51 per cent and 40 per cent selected them as their two main concerns, respectively. This left little room for campaign issues such as reproductive rights, despite their importance as social issues.

It will take some time for the dust to settle on what has been a bruising election. An interregnum approaches during which Mr Trump will select his team but regardless of who sits in the Oval Office, the US remains an indispensable part of the world order and a valuable security partner for many countries around the world, including the Middle East. Mr Trump’s return offers a chance to push the reset button on what has been a difficult 13 months in the region. As a leader known to be a man of action, hopefully a new chapter can begin to be written.