For weeks, the world's eyes have been on the Ukraine-Russia border, where there are fears Europe might be perilously close to war. The situation is no less fraught today. After a month and a half of making no direct comments on the matter, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday accused the West of trying lure his country into war by ignoring its diplomatic and security concerns.
There are fissures within the EU and Nato powers over how to deal with the issue, and a looming severe continental energy crisis is set to be aggravated by the tensions. It is important to remember that Russia and Ukraine have technically been at war since 2014, when Russian separatist forces annexed Crimea, but today's fears are that even the smallest triggers might produce something far deadlier.
It is difficult not to draw grim parallels from history. While Europe has been largely conflict-free in recent times, part of the motivation for creating mechanisms for multilateral co-operation in the latter half of the 20th century, embodied most acutely in the EU and Nato, was to put a stop to the long history of fighting on the continent. The First and Second World Wars began in Europe, and killed 100 million people combined. They were followed by half a century of "cold war" between the West and the USSR, which nearly took the world to nuclear annihilation.
It is also important to remember that these conflicts involved the rest of the world. And that is where today's parallels are even more concerning, because it is not just in Eastern Europe that inter-state tensions are running high enough to raise alarm bells.
This week, North Korea successfully launched its most powerful missile in five years. There are fears that as great powers remain preoccupied by Ukraine-Russia tensions, not enough attention will be paid to that escalation; after all, these conditions are very similar to ones that led to one of the most intense geopolitical episodes of the Trump presidency, which saw a bizarre but highly confrontational war of words between the former US president and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over Twitter.
-
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends the eighth conference of military educationists of the Korean People's Army at the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang. Korean Central News Agency / AFP -
Kim Jong-un attends a military parade marking the ruling party congress at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang in January 2021. KCNA / AP -
Kim Jong-un is applauded by a military unit after what North Korea claimed was a test firing of its 'super-large' multiple rocket launcher in November 2019. KCNA / AP -
Kim Jong-un rides a horse to climb Mount Paektu in North Korea in October 2019. KCNA / AP -
Kim Jong-un and former US president Donald Trump shake hands over the military demarcation line at the border village of Panmunjom in the demilitarised zone in June 2019. KCNA / AP -
Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in raise their hands after signing a joint statement in Panmunjom in April 2018. Korea Summit Press Pool / AP -
Kim Jong-un inspects a launch drill of the medium and long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 at an undisclosed location in September 2017. KCNA / AFP -
Kim Jong-un smiles with soldiers after inspecting the multiple-rocket launching drill of the women's sub-units under the Korean People's Army Unit 851 at an undisclosed location in North Korea, April 2014. KCNA / AFP -
Kim Jong-un talks to former NBA star Dennis Rodman as they watch an exhibition basketball game at an indoor stadium in Pyongyang in January 2014. KCNA / AP -
Kim Jong-un inspects a mass parade of the Worker-Peasant Red Guards at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang to mark the 65th anniversary of national foundation day, September 2013. KCNA / AFP -
Kim Jong-un visits watch posts of KPA Unit 507 in the Kangwon province of North Korea, June 2013. KCNA / AFP -
Kim Jong-un enjoys the ride as he attends the completion ceremony of the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground in Pyongyang in July 2012. KCNA / AP -
Kim Jong-un is surrounded by members of the Korean Children's Union in Pyongyang in June 2012. KCNA / AFP -
Kim Jong-un attends a meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly in Pyongyang in April 2012. KCNA / AFP -
Kim Jong-un aims a gun on an inspection tour of the Sporting Bullet Factory in Pyongyang in February 2012. KCNA / AFP -
Kim Jong-un salutes besides the convoy carrying the body of his father and late leader Kim Jong-il at Kumsusan Memorial Palace in Pyongyang in December 2011. KCNA / AFP -
Late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il with his son Kim Jong-un on the balcony as they attend a military parade marking the 65th anniversary of the communist nation's ruling Workers' Party in Pyongyang, October 2010. Kyodo News / AP -
Kim Il-sung with his son and chosen successor, Kim Jong-il in November 1986. KCNA / AFP
At the same time, North Korea appears to thrive on attention. That is a challenge for diplomats. Yesterday, the US called for an emergency meeting at the UN Security Council over North Korea's latest launch — it could hardly be expected not to.
For his part, US President Joe Biden has struck a balance between acknowledging the challenges facing North Korea while also holding it accountable for perceived aggressive actions. It represents an all too rarely consistent American geopolitical approach over two starkly different presidencies. That is why, at least in this arena, diplomacy still has much to give.
With much of the back channels and unspoken norms of the Cold War era now gone, it is time that those involved in Ukraine-Russia tensions similarly use diplomacy not as a facade, but as the means to step back from the brink. It is not just the best option the world has, but the only one if another war, with all its capacity to hurt those two countries and the rest of the globe, is to be avoided.
