The fight for Panjshir Valley reveals the reality of a Taliban government

Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesperson, at a press conference in Kabul. EPA

In a press conference on Monday, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said that Taliban forces had captured the Panjshir Valley, and with it, any expectation, for now, that pockets of the country might withstand the group’s lightning-quick takeover of the country.

Capturing the valley would deliver a major, even historic win for the Taliban. The Soviet Union made nine attempts to do so during its occupation of the country between 1979 to 1989. Only one was successful. After seizing the valley's basin, controlling the region proved even harder, with nearby mountains offering good cover for local resistance forces.

Now, the Taliban appears to have near-total control of Afghanistan. Largely free from the distraction of the National Resistance Front (NRF), as Panjshir’s resistance movement is known, the Taliban will decide the kind of government it wants to form. Taliban officials have been in closed-door discussions over the matter for several days.

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  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives to board an aircraft from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland for travel to Doha, Qatar and Ramstein, Germany. AP

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  A satellite image shows grounded aircraft at the Mazar-i-Sharif airport in northern Afghanistan. Maxar Technologies via AFP

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  The Mazar-i-Sharif airport in northern Afghanistan. Maxar Technologies via AFP

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  Schoolgirls on their way home in Kabul. EPA

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  People sell petrol on a roadside in Kabul. EPA

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  Members of Jiye Sindh Mahaz party protest against plans to accept Afghan refugees in Karachi, Pakistan. Pakistan has shut its doors to Afghan refugees following the Taliban's takeover of the country. About 1. 4 million Afghan refugees are living in Pakistan legally, while around another million are undocumented. EPA

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  Afghan filmmaker Shahrbanoo Sadat speaks in Paris, France, before attending a gathering held to show solidarity with the women of Afghanistan. AP

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  Protesters are reflected in the sunglasses worn by a demonstrator during a rally in support of Afghanistan's people, at the Place de la Republique, in Paris. AFP

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  A man holds the Afghan national flag as he takes part in a rally in support of Afghanistan's people, at the Place de la Republique, in Paris. AFP

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  An Afghan man rides a bicycle past a barrier wall in Kabul. AFP

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  A member of the Taliban forces stands guard at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. Reuters

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  Passengers disembark on arrival from Kandahar at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. Reuters

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  A general view of the city of Kabul, Afghanistan. Reuters

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  A suspected ISIS member sits blindfolded in a Taliban Special Forces car in Kabul, Afghanistan. Reuters

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  An entrance of the Maintenance Group Command at the military airfield in Kabul. Reuters

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  Damaged Afghan military aircraft are parked in a hangar after the Taliban's takeover of Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul. AP

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  An Afghan military helicopter at the airport in Kabul. AP

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  A Taliban fighter rests while on duty at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. AP

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  A burqa-clad woman sells face masks to commuters at a traffic intersection in Kabul. AFP

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  Passengers board an Ariana Afghan Airlines aircraft for a domestic flight, at the airport in Kandahar. Afghanistan's major airports reopened for domestic flights on September 4. EPA

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  Foreign currency traders carry out their tasks after the money market and other financial services providers reopened for business in Kabul. AFP

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  Foreign currency dealers transact in Kabul. AFP

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  A Taliban fighter stands guard as people move past him at a market with shops dealing in foreign currency, in Kabul. AFP

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  Workers and volunteers load a shipment of humanitarian aid to be sent to Afghanistan at Bahrain International Airport on Muharraq Island, near the capital Manama. AFP

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  Official spokeswoman of the Supreme Committee for Crisis Management in Qatar, Lolwah Al Khater, and UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths visit the Park View Villas, in Doha, which is now housing Afghan refugees. AFP

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  Fifa president Gianni Infantino, centre, plays football with people flown from Afghanistan at Park View Villas, Doha. Accommodation built in Qatar for the 2022 Fifa World Cup has now assumed a different role from that envisaged by the organising committee - housing Afghan refugees. AFP

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  Back row, from left, Matthijs Wouter Knol, Sahraa Karimi, Sarah Mani and Mike Downey, and front row, from left, Orwa Nyrabia and Vanja Kaludjercic during the International Panel on Afghanistan and the situation of Afghan filmmakers and artists at the 78th annual Venice International Film Festival, in Italy. EPA

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  US Air Force Brigadier General Gerald Donohue speaks during a media briefing at Al Udeid airbase in Doha, Qatar. Reuters

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  A vendor displays guns for sale at a market in the Panjwai district of Kandahar province. AFP

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  Customers wait outside a bank on a street in Kabul, Afghanistan. Reuters

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  Vehicles loaded with shipping containers wait to cross into Afghanistan, at the Friendship Gate crossing point, in the border town of Chaman, Pakistan. Reuters

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  People queue outside a bank to withdraw money in the Shar-e-Naw district of Kabul. AFP

Senior Taliban officials have long insisted that they are prepared to govern peacefully, seeking to allay fears that they will bring back the reign of terror for which the group was infamous when it ruled in the 1990s. Whether or not they will do so is a central question determining the future of Afghanistan. The majority of the country’s population is young, and has never lived under Taliban rule.

In an audio recording released shortly after Mr Mujahid’s remarks on Monday, Ahmad Massoud, leader of the NRF, claimed that the Taliban had, in its alleged conquest of Panjshir, violated a call by Afghanistan’s leading religious clerics for a ceasefire. He vowed to continue the resistance, and urged other Afghans to rise up.

Mr Massoud also stressed his belief that the Taliban has not changed. Nearly every day, new evidence emerges suggesting he may be right. Increasing reports of violations raise concerns. In the past fortnight, the group has been accused of hunting down and killing civil servants from the former government. Last week, a group of former soldiers in the process of surrendering to the Taliban were reportedly executed in Daykundi province.

The dissonance between the group’s claims of a new, more tolerant era and the actions of fighters on the ground raises questions about the Taliban's intentions. It could also be a sign of a much more complicated problem, which is that the group's leadership has little control over its foot soldiers. If true, this would be a major barrier on the path towards forming a sustainable government.

Ultimately, the surest step the Taliban’s leadership can take to secure its position of power and to earn the confidence of everyone in Afghanistan is to demonstrate that it understands what peace looks like. This means prioritising discipline, law and order among its own ranks, and pursuing justice most swiftly for the victims of crimes committed in its name. It also means ending any attempts to defeat resistance holdouts such as Mr Massoud’s violently, opting instead only for diplomacy, no matter how long it takes.

The fall of Panjshir would add to the tragedies of Afghanistan. The whole episode is also a reflection of the issues the Taliban will have more widely, ones of popular and international legitimacy, control of the country and the refusal of many Afghans to submit to fundamentalist rule. Most importantly, the group’s choice between ending or continuing bloodshed in the valley will give Afghans an idea of what to expect whenever a new Taliban government is announced.