Yemen is the origin of all Arabs. This phrase is spoken often across the Arab world. While it is not entirely accurate, a vast number of tribes in the Gulf can still clearly trace their lineage to Yemen. Indeed, in response to the deteriorating situation in Yemen, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs, in April this year also referred to the same phrase by saying: “If we as Arabs like to say our origins are from Yemen, we must protect our origins.”
Yet, the minister’s comments were not only focused on the blood ties of Arabs to Yemen. For the government and citizens of the GCC, the conflict in Yemen is of even greater importance than any ancestral connections.
The unprecedented progress, development and innovation of the Gulf countries achieved over the past 50 years – which has provided GCC citizens with a life of peace, prosperity and security – is now at risk of being destroyed by the Iranian-backed Houthis.
The situation in Yemen worsens by the day, with an estimated 2,000 lives lost so far and a humanitarian crisis described by the UN as “catastrophic”. More than 20 million civilians, 80 per cent of the population, are in dire need of aid.
When the conflict began, it shook the Arab world. It started when thousand of Houthi fighters seized control of Sanaa. Abdrabu Mansur Hadi, recognised by the international community as the country’s legitimate leader, was forced to flee. A Saudi-led coalition was formed, staging air strikes against the insurgent Houthis.
Hopes have now been placed on the three-day meeting in Geneva between the various factions. After several days of prevarication, a Houthi delegation finally agreed yesterday that they would travel from Sanaa to Switzerland for the talks.
The three main interest groups are the Houthis, members of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party and representatives of Mr Hadi’s government.
Mr Saleh, accused of supporting the Houthis, is believed to want to use the meeting as a bargaining tool to avoid prosecution for war crimes in the International Criminal Court. Mr Hadi, meanwhile, will seek to uphold the UN Security Council Resolution 2216 that requires Houthi militants to withdraw, put down their weapons and recognise his legitimate government.
Yemen’s former prime minister Khaled Bahah last week announced at a Riyadh press conference that there would be no concessions of any kind made at Geneva. He said the talks would only put into practice the outcomes of previous political negotiations. This is unlikely to sit well with the Houthis and helps to explain in part why they initially refused to travel to the talks.
Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, recently referred to the meeting as consultations rather than negotiations. He has also said that the talks should seek to secure a ceasefire and a Houthi withdrawal and to allow for further deliveries of aid to Yemenis.
Much has already been done to even get to Geneva. But uncertainty, doubt and a lack of confidence has been expressed by all parties about the meeting’s ability to find a solution to the current crisis.
Regardless of the outcome, for the GCC, the threat of an Iranian-backed Houthi movement gaining influence and power in Yemen remains real.
A senior official told the BBC that “Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies were not going to tolerate what they call ‘an Iranian-backed militia taking over a country in their backyard’”, adding that “the Gulf Arab states want an end to Iranian interference in Arab affairs”.
If the situation deteriorates further in favour of the Houthis, what is now limited to air strikes may evolve into a ground offensive. The Saudi-led coalition has made it clear that the security of their countries and citizens is not up for negotiation. They remain determined to eradicate the threat of Iranian interference in the GCC by any means necessary.
Taryam Al Subaihi is a political and social commentator who specialises in media and communications
On Twitter: @TaryamAlSubaihi
