Containment, rather than breakthrough, may be the theme of the talks being held in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council member states plus Germany. The purpose of the negotiations is to revive the nuclear deal signed by the same group of countries in 2015. In parallel, Iranian escalation against the US – a member of the so-called "P5" alongside Britain, China, France and Russia – cannot be ruled out, as such a scenario would serve Tehran's interests ahead of its presidential election in June.
China and Russia, both allied to Iran, seem to have approached these talks slightly differently.
Moscow has thrown its support behind Tehran’s demand for the US to immediately lift sanctions on its ability to buy weapons and sell oil. Russia is currently pressing for a significant arms deal with Iran and is not keen on Washington’s proposal of lifting sanctions gradually. Beijing, on the other hand, is decidedly calmer, as it balances its large investments in Iran with its economic and energy relations with key Arab states.
Abbas Araghchi, political deputy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, leaves the Grand Hotel Wien after the closed-door nuclear talks in Vienna. AFP
The issue of any country selling weapons to Iran is contentious for the US. The previous Trump administration had vowed to impose sanctions on China and Russia, aimed specifically at their financial sectors, if they chose to do so. However, neither power seems to expect the Biden administration to retaliate against potential violations. There is also a sense that neither power is all that interested in facilitating US-Iran rapprochement. Rather, each is working to ensure that any accord or breakthrough occurs through its own efforts.
A question worth raising, then, is how able or willing are Gulf states to use their leverage with China and Russia to influence their policies, which indirectly fuel Iran’s domestic and regional projects that regional states view as threats to their national security and the security of other Arab states.
In a recent conversation, Joel Rayburn, who was US special envoy to Syria and deputy assistant secretary for Levant Affairs in the Trump administration, told me that key Arab states have sufficient leverage and may need to use it. Mr Rayburn said: “The nuclear agreement between Iran and other powers addresses none” of the problems of the region, which amount to “an existential problem for the countries of the Middle East”.
Other experts I spoke to recently have also pointed to China and Russia’s desire for neutrality given their interests both in Iran and the Arab world.
Matthew McInnis, Research Director at the Institute for the Study of War, said China will be eager not to get dragged into potential conflicts in the region. The Chinese, Mr McInnis said, see their strategic agreement with Iran “as a way to improve their overall position in the region and continue to assert their influence and pushing back against US and western roles there”. But as he pointed out, they also have investment in many Arab states “and they're not putting all their eggs into the Iranian basket”.
However, there is a theory that, when push comes to shove, one or both of Iran and China will struggle to maintain neutrality.
According to Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, Chairman of Al Arabiya's Editorial Board, fostering peace between trading partners will be desired but “the reality is that it is almost impossible to implement”. One of the reasons for this is Russia’s limited financial muscle, at least in comparison to that of China. Mr Al-Rashed said that China’s financial capabilities and influence were large enough that “they can afford to be friends with both sides, [while] the Russians actually cannot. So, eventually the Russians have to take sides”.
The other reason for why peace in the region is not guaranteed is Iran’s own politics.
The increasingly influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dictates Iran’s foreign and nuclear policies – and that much is evident in the Vienna talks. The IRGC's domestic priority is to reduce the influence of liberals in Iran’s electoral landscape, so that it can rule overtly without the cover of the moderates, represented by the likes of President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
Iran's adversarial relations with the US is electorally and strategically expedient for the IRGC, especially since the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East is one of its goals. Moreover, Iran’s foreign policy is predicated on ideological expansion carried out by IRGC-backed militias in some Arab countries. In fact, it is for this reason that Iran has refused to allow the P5+1 group to discuss the issue of its regional agenda in Vienna – just like it did during the 2015 negotiations.
The consequent nuclear deal helped unlock funds with which the IRGC further expanded into Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. And this is why former US president Donald Trump pulled his country out of the agreement in 2018.
A woman attends a protest of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an Iranian opposition group, in front of the Grand Hotel Wien during the nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna this week. AFP
Today, the IRGC senses that history is repeating itself – especially with Mr Trump no longer in office
Today, the IRGC senses that history is repeating itself – especially with Mr Trump no longer in office. If the Vienna talks lead to a breakthrough, the IRGC will be the biggest beneficiary. That said, the failure of the talks – or at least containing their success until after the Iranian election – is more expedient for it. For it does not actively seek a breakthrough or the lifting of sanctions with Mr Rouhani and Mr Zarif still in government, as that might give the so-called liberals a win ahead of the presidential election. Moreover, funds may not be that much of a concern now that Iran’s strategic partnership agreement with China is in place.
It is also important to note that, it isn’t Britain but Germany that is playing the lead role in the Vienna talks. This reflects a European position that is less interested in Tehran’s regional agenda than it is in tackling the issue of its nuclear weapons programme. It seems willing to offer concessions to Iran, including meeting its demand to continue enriching uranium “within reasonable limits” and continuing the programme despite Tehran's denial of full access to UN nuclear inspectors.
The Biden team is, no doubt, aware of the challenges of the Vienna process. But it is determined to seek a breakthrough that still seems far-fetched. The concern now is that it may end up relinquishing whatever leverage it has for getting a deal.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
The bio
Favourite book: Kane and Abel by Jeffrey Archer
Favourite quote: “The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson, American essayist
Favourite Authors: Arab poet Abu At-Tayyib Al-Mutanabbi
Favourite Emirati food: Luqaimat, a deep-fried dough soaked in date syrup
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024. It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine. Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages]. The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts. With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians. Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved. Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world. The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Racecard
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7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
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