As the US-China stand-off potentially reaches the point of no-return, there are growing fears across the globe about the implications of the tense relations between the two giants, each seeking to deny the other global supremacy. Recent developments in Hong Kong, where China imposed a new national security law, have exacerbated the recent strategic shift in their dynamic spurred on by the coronovarus pandemic and a trade war.
Now the US will seek to thwart a possible China-Iran pact by using sanctions to block financial transactions and by punishing Chinese banks. It may also attempt to block military deals between the two countries by lobbying to renew an arms embargo on Iran in the UN Security Council. China will perhaps be anxious about the repercussions of any sanctions on its financial system.
I believe Lebanon may prove useful to Beijing, which could seek to leverage that country’s financial system to avoid US sanctions. This, however, could lead to complications for Lebanon, which finds itself being swallowed up by the Iranian regime through its proxy Hezbollah. Speculation is rife amid reports indicating that Hezbollah recently obtained financial assistance from Tehran, which had in turn received funds from Beijing, as an incentive for clinching a deal.
A man inspects a building at the site of an explosion at a medical clinic in the north of the Iranian capital Tehran, Iran. REUTERS
Oxygen cylinders of a medical clinic are seen at the site of an explosion in the north of the Iranian capital Tehran. REUTERS
A damaged room of a medical clinic is seen at the site of an explosion in the north of the Iranian capital Tehran. REUTERS
A handout photo made available from a video by Iranian state TV (IRIB) shows the moment of an explosion at the Sina Athar health center in the north of Tehran, Iran. EPA
A woman reacts at the site of an explosion at a medical clinic in the north of the Iranian capital Tehran, Iran. REUTERS
An Iranian woman cries the scene of an explosion at the Sina Athar health centre, north of Tehran. EPA
Paramedics gather at the scene of the explosion. AFP Photo
Paramedics gather at the scene of the explosion. AFP Photo
An injured patient is carried carry away. AFP
Medics carry away a woman in a wheelchair. AFP Photo
Iranian civil defence inspect the mangled remains of the building. AFP
A car's windshield is shattered during the explosion. AP Photo
Over the next couple of weeks, senior Hezbollah leaders are scheduled to visit Tehran to finalise a strategy for the coming few months. Meanwhile, Iran is preparing to leverage its influence in Lebanon and Iraq to serve its objectives in of thwarting US and Israeli interests in the region.
I am reliably informed that Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intends to attempt tosecure by the end of 2020 full-scale control of Lebanon by Hezbollah. Lebanon might also serve as a key base from which to take unspecified measures against Israel in September. The decision for the same is likely to be taken in an important meeting in two weeks.
Tehran may have chosen September for a combination of reasons. For one, it wants to be prepared for Israel's proposed plan to annex parts of the West Bank. Second, it seeks to hold Israel accountable for a series of sabotage attacks that took place on its soil, including explosions inside some nuclear facilities, which some experts believe may have been the handiwork of Tel Aviv. Finally, Tehran believes that it is in its interests to create a crisis for US President Donald Trump as he seeks re-election in November.
Iran's leaders believe that they have, in Lebanon, a wild card that they can use to impact the US election by potentially escalating an unwanted situation come September. Iraq, too, is an important asset for the regime in this regard. Tehran perceives Washington to be in election mode and therefore less inclined to intervene in the Middle East at least until November.
Protesters face water cannon from riot police during a demonstration organised by supporters of Hezbollah, Lebanese communist party, and other Lebanese national parties at the US embassy against US interference in Lebanon's affairs, in Awkar area north-east Beirut, Lebanon. EPA
Protesters backed by Hezbollah, the Lebanese communist party and others during a demonstration against the United States' interference in Lebanon's affairs, near the US embassy in Awkar area, Beirut, Lebanon. EPA
Protesters try to remove barbed wire during a demonstration by supporters of Hezbollah, Lebanese communist party, and other Lebanese national parties during a demonstration at the US embassy against US interference in Lebanon's affairs, in Awkar area north-east Beirut, Lebanon. EPA
Protesters carry a picture of Hezbollah commander Imad Moughnyeh during a demonstration by supporters of Hezbollah, Lebanese communist party, and other Lebanese national parties at the US embassy against US interference in Lebanon's affairs, in Awkar area northeast Beirut, Lebanon. EPA
Lebanese army soldiers in riot gear arrive to the scene where supporters of Hezbollah and communist groups protest against US interference in Lebanon's affairs, near the American embassy, in Aukar north-east of Beirut, Lebanon. AP Photo
A Hezbollah supporter holds a placard during a protest against US interference in Lebanon's affairs, near the American embassy, in Aukar north-east of Beirut, Lebanon. AP Photo
Protesters pull barbed-wire fence off a street during an anti-US demonstration near the American embassy in Awkar, north-east Beirut. AFP
Protesters during an anti-US demonstration near the American embassy in Awkar, north-east of Lebanon's capital Beirut. AFP
A protester chants slogans as he is flanked by Lebanese police during an anti-US demonstration outside the American embassy in Awkar, north-east of the capital Beirut. AFP
Hezbollah supporters and communist groups throw stones at riot police during a protest against US interference in Lebanon's affairs, near the American embassy in Aukar, north-east of Beirut, Lebanon. AP Photo
One of the problems is that the existence of Lebanon as we know it – a nation that has long prided in its neutrality – is under threat.
"The tragedy of Lebanon is that no one really cares," the American conservative commentator Danielle Pletka told me during the 12th e-policy circle of the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi. However, Ms Pletka said that Hezbollah is in no condition to help Tehran if, for instance, it is asked to engage in a military conflict with Israel.
Abdulaziz Sager, the founder and chairman of the Gulf Research Centre, said few countries could help to fix Lebanon's myriad problems. "Maybe we need the Lebanese civil society to step in again to try to re-fix the situation in Lebanon," he said.
The question is, would China or Russia not be tempted to come to Beirut's assistance? Perhaps not the latter, according to Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, even though he acknowledged Moscow's alliance of convenience with Hezbollah in the ongoing Syrian civil war.
“The alliances that Russia has today are very different from the alliances of the Soviet Union, or the alliances of the United States," he explained. "These are situational alliances for limited space, limited objectives, limited length of time."
He also pointed out that Russia does not support even Iranian policy across the Middle East. "Russia is with Iran for a certain objective [influence in Syria]. And even in Syria, Russia and Iran are in fact competitors, and the asset is playing one off the other," he said.
There is a school of thought that China, too, has very specific interests in the region and would be wary of stepping into the geopolitical morass of the Middle East. "China is about business at this point. It stays away from where it doesn't have the competence or experience," Mr Trenin pointed out.
One cannot forget the fact that China has interests and strong relations elsewhere in the region, such as in the Gulf. Beijing imports 32 per cent of its oil from the Gulf region, including 1.7 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia. And yet, Mr Sager wondered if despite all this, Beijing is likely to ignore these relations in the context of its relations with the US. He said: "The whole US relation to China will have a massive impact on the Gulf."
It is not just the countries in the Middle East that are concerned by the US-China tensions. The Russians and Europeans are, too. There seems to be a sense that, even if Mr Trump were to lose in November, a president Joe Biden may take the same hawkish approach towards Beijing.
I am given to understand that, following a meeting in Washington earlier this month, a decision was reached at the highest level to create a multi-national coalition against China. Steps are already being taken in the meantime: expelling Chinese tech companies, shutting down consulates, attempting to thwart a China-Iran deal, and blocking off Hong Kong's financial access to the world in a way that would deny China any chance of leveraging the city's economy to its advantage.
China, of course, is not taking kindly to these steps, although it will also be wary of escalating tensions.
But with changing times and contexts, one cannot rule out the possibility of tiny Lebanon being drawn into the great power rivalry of the 21st century. By focusing on the big picture, the Trump administration may be oblivious of smaller countries. But it should know that one of the repercussions of an economic collapse in Lebanon would be even greater Iranian, and possibly by the extension of this greater Chinese, control there.
Whether Washington is mindful of this prospect now or later, Lebanon could on the cusp of a new, dangerous chapter.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
