Bellicose one moment, mollifying the next, President Donald Trump's stance on Iran in recent months has been consistently inconsistent – and given every prognosticator plenty to chew on.
The vibe in Washington this week has shifted to a resigned consensus that US military action against Iran is coming very soon, although perhaps it will be limited in scope.
From where I'm sitting, it is unclear if Tehran has grasped how little road it has left with Mr Trump, and if it realises that Thursday's latest round of nuclear talks in Geneva could be the last.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said a deal with the US is “within reach”. As he was leaving Tehran for Geneva on Wednesday night, his boss, President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran saw a “good outlook” for the talks.
It is true that both the US and Iran have cited progress in previous talks, but one wonders if Mr Araghchi is about to fall into the chasm that exists between the two countries in terms of their expected outcomes.
During Tuesday's State of the Union address, Mr Trump repeated the old line that the US will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Iran has repeatedly said it is not building a bomb.
But the US also wants to curtail Iran's ballistic missile programme and all but end its nuclear enrichment processes, even for civilian use. Tehran has said these demands are unacceptable.
And Mr Trump last month painted himself into something of a corner when it comes to military action by committing to helping Iranian protesters and encouraging them to rise up against the regime as it was killing thousands of people who had taken to the streets to demonstrate against the worsening economy. A deal now would be seen as a betrayal by many and would make Mr Trump look like he had been duped.
The last time talks like this took place, Barack Obama was in the White House and his administration spent about two years trying to negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Perhaps Tehran thinks it can draw the US into another series of protracted negotiations – but that would be a mistake.
The Geneva talks are far more urgent than the protracted timeline of the JCPOA negotiations. One week ago, Mr Trump gave Iran a deadline of 10-15 days to make a new deal with the US. Ten days from then is Saturday.
The US has amassed more firepower in the Middle East than at any time since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Iran's military capabilities are considerably diminished.
Not only have Tehran's proxies been severely impacted by Israel and the US, Iranian military and air defence capabilities took a huge hit during last year's 12-day war and America's Operation Midnight Hammer targeting nuclear sites.
Mr Trump at his State of the Union address on Tuesday said his preference was for diplomacy to win out in resolving the Iran crisis, messaging that Vice President JD Vance yesterday reiterated when he said he hoped the Iranians took Mr Trump's preference seriously in talks.
But Mr Vance also said the US has seen evidence that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, echoing the weapons of mass destruction casus belli language before the invasion of Iraq 23 years ago.
My own sense is that Geneva will amount to little more than lip service from the US while it gets its last bits of military materiel into place. I've been writing about the US military in one form or another for 20 years and have never seen the Pentagon amass forces on this scale only to turn tail and head home without firing a shot.
