Policies that US President Donald Trump has pursued in his second term have created important openings for China’s foreign policy ambitions. Beijing’s diplomacy offers something of a measure of leadership, largely by providing the world – including Washington’s allies in Europe – with an alternative to the formula that America has proposed.
It is also clear that with this increasing power or global sway comes responsibility. When China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, spoke at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, his remarks were made to be weighed alongside those of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who spoke from the same podium minutes earlier.
A key element of Mr Wang’s comments was centred on the relationship between Mr Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Mr Wang framed it as important to sustain the Xi-Trump consensus, reached on trade last October, as a pillar of stability. But he also warned that this understanding had critics in the US itself.
As a cornerstone of international co-operation, Beijing offers its so-called Global Governance Initiative that backs multilateral institutions under assault from Washington, at a time when Europe is struggling with “deep divisions” with the US.
In this context, the Chinese representative was pointed in his remarks about Taiwan in ways that are illustrative of how much is at stake in the balancing act between Washington and Beijing.
Specifically, Mr Wang questioned if “all people in the United States share [Mr Trump’s] view” on the issue of Taiwan. He added that certain factions in the US were trying to “split Taiwan from China and stepping on China’s red lines”, something that would push the two sides to conflict.
Mr Wang’s subsequent remarks were directed at Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for stating last year that any shift by Beijing on Taiwan would represent an emergency for Japan. “The erroneous remarks by the Japanese leadership on the Taiwan question reveal that Japan’s ambition to invade and colonise Taiwan has not died out, and the ghost of militarism is still lingering,” he said.
It is a well-established fact that China regards Taiwan as an issue of its own sovereignty and requires countries with ties to Beijing to respect that there is “one China” in the world. That settled situation is a precious piece of diplomacy that has been sustained since the era of the late Chinese Communist Party chairman Mao Zedong.
When it is introduced into the sphere of diplomacy, there is always close attention to the words and the direction of travel these might portend for the world.
There is little doubt that the stakes for China are high right now. This is true in terms of its own national destiny.
This is also a time when maintaining stability, as well as the status quo, is very much the offer that Beijing is making to the world. Unsettling that equation would go against Beijing’s broad global position, one that stands in contra-distinction to much that the US has proposed since Mr Trump’s return to the White House.
Look at the exchanges that Mr Wang had with European counterparts in Munich during the conference.
There was a revival of the three-way meeting of the Chinese, French and German foreign ministers. That this was held over the same weekend that the French convened the first face-to-face G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in some ways told its own story.
The US had just called for western civilisational unity albeit in adjunct to America’s priority around the Western Hemisphere. The Europeans signalled they would not cut China off at a time when it was warning against “abrupt decoupling” from the established trade and supply chain ties built up over half a century.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and his French counterpart, Jean-Noel Barrot, told Mr Wang that they wanted to “build mutual trust” and “dispel misunderstandings”, with Mr Barrot specifically welcoming Beijing’s Global Governance Initiative.
This suggests that there is a complex international architecture settling into place before our eyes. Of course, much of its stability will depend on the entente that is established – or not – during Mr Trump’s visit to China and his meeting with Mr Xi in April.
By arguing that China is a force for stability and by pushing for a consensus with Mr Trump, Beijing has deftly managed the changing international situation while being able to assert its red lines. The law of the jungle that it disdains in American hawks is an important asset for its diplomats as they seek stronger ties and more buy-in for Beijing’s global agenda.
This is important also because Taiwan’s importance to the global economy is recognised around the world, particularly its dominance in semi-conductors and other parts of the technology supply chain.
Beijing’s offer of stability is a prime international asset at time of much flux. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz put it best when he described Europe’s economic relationship with China as a stabilising anchor at time when the continent is seeking strategic autonomy within the big-power relationships.
These are all careful words, and much is conditional. So much so that China now needs to protect the gains it has made and sustain the confidence of its partners around the world.
