The 21st century’s “great game” is well under way, and the US is making its move. The recent regime change in Venezuela and President Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland are just the opening volley. That’s because Mr Trump believes in spheres of influence and peace through strength. He has prioritised the harvesting of America’s natural resources, cracked down on illegal migration and refused to hold back from a raft of tariffs that he claims will be better for business despite intense international and internal pressure to do so.
For the avoidance of doubt, this is what the America First doctrine driving US foreign policy looks like. The focus is on strategic territory and resources. For Mr Trump, America's security and sovereignty are top priorities; that’s what his crackdown on immigration and the trade war are all about. And as with his shakeup of the global economic order, he is clearly willing to take bold steps to ensure American dominance in the Western Hemisphere. For Mr Trump, Greenland, with its rich mineral deposits and pivotal location, is more than a land grab – it’s a necessity.
That’s because the Arctic sea ice is melting, and with it any sense that the far north is uncontested ground. Russia has been strengthening its military presence in the region unchecked for decades, with its allies in Beijing looking to do the same. Now the melting Arctic ice cap is creating new shipping lanes and resource extraction opportunities, making the region a critical battleground in this century’s great game.
Russia's Arctic military posture is built around its Northern Fleet, which is equipped with strategic nuclear assets, long-range missile strike capabilities and air defence systems. This creates an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) "bubble" in the western Barents Sea region, making it challenging for Nato to operate in the area. Russia's military bases, hardware and listening posts give President Vladimir Putin control over the Northern Sea Lanes, allowing Russia to project power into the Atlantic and beyond.
These are all facts, and they are hardly revelatory; successive US and European governments have watched Russia assert its dominance in the Arctic for decades and done little to counter it. Europe’s obsession with implementing its climate agenda somehow has not extended to recognising the inherent security concerns melting ice caps can bring. Consequently, Nato investment in the far north has been negligible, failing to keep pace with Russia's Arctic ambitions. Denmark, responsible for Greenland's defence, has belatedly allocated $6.54 billion towards it, but experts argue it's insufficient to counter Russia's military superiority.
Even though European governments are finally awakening to the reality of Russia's Arctic dominance, their response is too slow for Mr Trump. And it isn’t like he didn’t warn them. Nato’s efforts to strengthen its Arctic deterrence are still in the works and America’s presence in the region, minimal compared to Russia, is not enough to allay Mr Trump’s legitimate concerns that Mr Putin could take Greenland in a day.
As the Arctic emerges as a new frontier in the 21st-century great game, European allies, who see Mr Trump's actions as a threat to international law and sovereignty, have flatly refused to budge, despite needing the US to counter Russian and Chinese influence. Nato has so far failed to develop a coherent strategy to counter Moscow's ambitions and protect its interests, and while they dither, Russia is investing heavily in modernising its nuclear arsenal and consolidating its positions in the Barents region and along the Northern Sea Route.
When I interviewed Mr Putin in 2021, he told me his hypersonic missiles were already on deployment in the Arctic; at that time, as today, western allies had yet to successfully complete the testing of their own hypersonic arsenal, let alone develop functioning deterrents. Despite Russia’s advances in weaponry, the US still did nothing significant to increase security in the far north. European governments, only beginning to understand the impact Mr Putin’s energy war would have on their economies, let alone the risk of his invasion of Ukraine, were equally laconic. Five years and a war in Europe later, Mr Trump has decided enough is enough. America will not find itself the grasshopper who sang all summer.
Predictably, Mr Trump’s approach has alienated allies and offended everyone, but the facts suggest America’s commander-in-chief probably shouldn’t care. He has already tried to make a deal, but Denmark and Greenland have firmly stated that Greenland is not for sale, and Nato allies are calling his moves “unacceptable” and handwringing about the implications for global stability. This is even though France, Germany and the UK, for months beating the drums of war, talking up the possibility of a military draft and warning of Mr Putin’s designs on Europe, now seem caught out by Mr Trump’s solution to a very real problem.
With European governments seemingly torn between preparing for war – with the US? With Russia? – and seeking diplomatic solutions, the American President has decided to come to them in Davos and bait them in their den. It’s the largest-ever American delegation to the World Economic Forum, a conference of globalists for globalists, heavily patronised by European leaders and those who think as they do. The fireworks begin on Wednesday; stay tuned.
